Golden State Valkyries vs Washington Mystics Point Spread Picks

We're catching Washington and Golden State for the second time in three days, and Golden State has won every meeting between these two this season, no denying that history, including a 62-49 decision back on July 6th. But that margin was 13 points, and the number tonight is wider than that, even before accounting for who's healthy. Sonia Citron is back to full strength for the Mystics after missing time with knee soreness, dropping 19 points in Sunday's win over Seattle, and Shakira Austin has been playing her best basketball of the season right alongside her. Golden State is also playing its third game in a short stretch, the kind of spot where fatigue tends to show up late, not early, and where a comfortable lead in the fourth quarter often turns into bench minutes that protect the underdog's number. That offensive balance for Washington is also why the total should clear a number set lower than either team's recent scoring pace. Golden State just hung 88 points on a good defense, and Washington has the pieces to keep pace even in a loss. Back Washington with the points, and ride the OVER right alongside it.

Washington still remembers what Golden State did to them three weeks ago, a 62-49 defensive mauling that produced their worst offensive output of the season. That memory should sharpen the Mystics tonight, even with Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen trying to answer for a rough Thursday loss to Portland that dropped Washington to 12-11. The Valkyries arrive home fresh off the best road trip in franchise history, a perfect 5-0 stretch that pushed their winning streak to eight straight, the longest run in team history. But look at how they've actually done it: since the streak began, Golden State is scoring just 77.6 points a night on 43.9 percent shooting, outscoring opponents by an average of 9.1 points a night. That number is almost identical to the 8.5 Washington is catching tonight, which tells me the market has already priced in a typical Golden State win rather than anything larger. A team that wins through defense and depth rather than separation doesn't need much to slip under a number like this, especially in the first game back after a grueling five-city trip. Back Washington with the number tonight.

Golden State is one of the best home teams in the league at 10-3 at Chase Center, but on the road this season, the Valkyries are a modest 4-4, and tonight is a true road test against a Washington team that just won two straight, including a four-overtime classic over Portland. The Mystics are dealing with real problems on offense. They turned it over 19 times in a single first half against Atlanta, and now they're without Sonia Citron, who scored 32 points in her last outing before a knee injury ended her night early. That combination, an elite Golden State defense that's held three of its last eight opponents under 70 points meeting a Washington offense that's shaky and shorthanded, points the total in one direction. It doesn't point the spread the same way. A defensive, low-possession game like this tends to stay close on the scoreboard even when neither side is scoring much, and Golden State's own inconsistency away from home backs that up. I like the total to land south of the number, and I like Washington to still be standing within the spread when it's over. Take the UNDER and Washington plus the points tonight.

Washington is in triple revenge after losing three close games to the Valkyries this season. Golden State had lost three in a row until it defeated Dallas 90-81 on Sunday, and it hasn't played since. The Mystics have gone OVER six of their past nine games, and the Valkyries have gone OVER four of six. Washington is on a 5-0 OVER run against Western Conference opponents. The Mystics still have a remote chance of making the playoffs, but they are more focused on finishing strong while continuing to rebuild for next season. Washington trailed 46-28 at the half in the last meeting and made it close at the end before losing 88-83. Look for the Mystics to get over the hump in tonight's matchup. Three plays on this one: Take the Mystics ATS, bet them on the moneyline, and tag the OVER as today's best bet.

Washington just concluded a four-game trip in which it lost the first three before defeating Dallas 91-78 and the game went OVER as the Mystics shot 54 percent led by Kiki Iriafen with 23 points. The Mystics score 78.7 points per game and allow 80.5 compared to 77.6 and 77.1 for Golden State, respectively. Newly-acquired Jacy Sheldon and Alysha Clark combined for 17 points against the Wings. They have helped to fill in the void left by Brittney Sykes, who was traded to Seattle. Washington has allowed 82.4 points its past seven games. This is a relatively low posted total. Take the OVER.