Golden State Valkyries vs Toronto Tempo Point Spread Picks

Toronto is 10-19, losers of six straight, and got drilled on the road Sunday, 96-79, in the opener of this two-game set. Look at how it happened, though. The Tempo trailed by just one at the half without Marina Mabrey and Brittney Sykes, and their starters outscored Golden State's by 21 points. The whole margin lived in the bench: Toronto's reserves managed eight points on 3-for-16 shooting, Golden State's bench scored 46. That gap turned a one-point game into a blowout, and it is the exact problem tonight's roster is built to fix. Sykes stays out. But Mabrey is working back from the neck injury that sidelined her Sunday, and Aneesah Morrow, acquired from Connecticut last week, is in line to make her Tempo debut after sitting out to get acclimated. We backed Toronto plus a big number in the opener, and it did not hold, a 17-point loss that blew past the cushion, and I am not pretending otherwise with the rematch sitting right in front of us. But the same team that played this one even for three quarters shorthanded now gets real reinforcements, against a Golden State team still easing Gabby Williams back from a reconditioning issue. This is too many points for a team that just proved it belongs in this game. Take the Tempo. 

We backed Toronto plus a big number against Minnesota five days ago, and it worked with room to spare, the Tempo losing by seven and covering the 16 comfortably. Toronto's now dropped five straight since and sits 10-18 on the season, and tonight's trip to Chase Center looks like the toughest stop yet: Golden State leads the WNBA in defense, holding opponents to 76.9 points a game and 42.5 percent shooting, and the Valkyries are 8-2 in their last 10 with a home crowd behind them. Golden State has earned that price against most of the league. But these two already met once, on July 8 in Toronto, and Golden State needed a 26-16 fourth quarter just to escape with an eight-point win. Tonight's number is well above that actual margin. Marina Mabrey has been the engine keeping Toronto in games regardless of the final score, averaging 21.9 points a night over her last seven, and even with Isabelle Harrison day-to-day after torching Golden State for 24 in the first meeting, Toronto has enough shot-making to stay inside a number this size. Back Toronto on the spread tonight.

Golden State has become the league's toughest watch for opposing offenses, and it starts with pace. The Valkyries play the slowest tempo in the WNBA, and over their last five games, they've held opponents under 77 points a night, capping that stretch by limiting Washington to a season-low 49 in Monday's win. Toronto counters without two of its top perimeter scorers. Brittney Sykes, the team's leading scorer, has missed extended time with a plantar fascia issue, and rookie guard Kiki Rice remains out with a Grade 3 ankle sprain, stripping the Tempo of shot creation that normally pushes their offense into the mid-90s. Marina Mabrey can still get hot from deep, but asking her to single-handedly outscore Golden State's defense is a tall order against a team built to grind games into the 60s and 70s. Toronto also plays a fast, possession-heavy style when healthy, which means whatever rhythm they try to find tonight runs straight into a defense engineered to choke exactly that off. The total sits well above where a shorthanded Toronto team facing this defense should land. Take the UNDER tonight.