Golden State Valkyries vs Seattle Storm Point Spread Picks

Seattle got run off the floor by Las Vegas in its last outing, losing 114-77 as a shorthanded, stretch-run Storm defense let a good offense do whatever it wanted. That kind of number doesn't happen in a vacuum for a team with nothing left to play for but pride. Golden State has its No. 2 seed locked up, closes its home slate tonight on Fan Appreciation Night in front of another sellout, and is playing the back half of its final back-to-back of the year. None of that tightens anything up defensively. Golden State still puts up more than 82 points a night on offense, and Seattle's scoring average sits right there with it, so my numbers have the combined total running well past the posted line even before factoring in a Storm defense that just got torched for over a hundred. Flau'jae Johnson gets her first look at Chase Center since Golden State shipped her out on draft night, extra incentive to hunt shots against the team that traded her. Two offenses capable of scoring, a defense that just showed it can be had, and a home team with no reason to play tight. We're in on this number tonight, and I don't expect it to be particularly close. The OVER is the right side.

Seattle fell to Los Angeles by five earlier this week, a result that better reflects what the Storm actually are than their 3-11 record suggests. That record was built largely around an eight-game stretch without Dominique Malonga, their leading scorer and rebounder, who missed significant time with a concussion and watched the team go winless in her absence. Since returning, the margins have tightened: down ten to Vegas, down five to the Sparks. Golden State is the real thing defensively, ranking among the league's best in defensive efficiency and limiting opponents to among the fewest points per game in the WNBA. The Valkyries are right to be the heavy favorites here. But nearly ten points is a wide spread, and a Storm team that has consistently kept games within reach since getting its frontcourt anchor back is worth backing to do it again. Bet on the Storm ATS.

Seattle is rebuilding and has a first-year coach in Sonia Raman, but the team has plenty of young talent after an excellent draft. Golden State signed Gabby Williams away from Seattle the day before the draft, but the Valkyries traded the No. 8 pick to the Storm in order to select Marta Suarez, who eventually was waived. Golden State lost its last five games in 2025, including a first-round playoff sweep by Minnesota. The Valkyries lost four of their last five road games. Seattle lost two of three to Las Vegas in the postseason, but covered the last two games, winning 86-83 and then losing 74-73. Take the Storm on the moneyline.

Golden State has a losing road record (9-11) and has already clinched a postseason spot. The offense is 10th in the 13-team league in scoring and last in shooting (41%). Two of their top four scorers are injured, with guard Tiffany Hayes (11.7 ppg) out and forward Cecilia Zandalasini (11.2 ppg) questionable. Meanwhile, Seattle is a half-game ahead of ninth-seeded Los Angeles for a playoff spot. They need a top-eight finish to make the postseason and can accomplish that with a win. The offense is fifth in shooting, while the defense is fifth in points allowed. Back the motivated home team that is playing its fourth consecutive home contest. Play Seattle. 

Golden State is outscoring opponents with a +1.5 differential on the season (7th best), anchored by terrific defense and rebounding. The defense is No. 1 in the WNBA in shooting allowed (40%), while they're third in rebounding and in defensive rebounding. Golden State has covered its last two road games, a 104-102 loss at Las Vegas as a +5 underdog, and an 80-61 win at Indiana getting +7.5. Seattle is eighth in the 13-team league in points scored, while the defense is eighth in shooting allowed. They're a poor rebounding squad, 12th in defensive rebounds and last in offensive boards. Seattle comes off a 74-69 home loss to Washington, shooting just 36%, turning it over 17 times while getting outrebounded again. Seattle is on a 2-6 spread run, including an 84-57 loss to Golden State as a favorite. In that game, Golden State shot 48.4% while holding Seattle to 27% from the field. Play Golden State.