Golden State Valkyries vs New York Liberty Point Spread Picks

Golden State's stingy defense won me a bet three days ago, as I got points at Minnesota and cashed the UNDER the same night, when that unit held one of the league's best offenses to 66 points. Tonight, the best defensive rating in the WNBA walks into Barclays Center on zero rest, its third game in four nights after wins over Minnesota and Connecticut. New York has had five days to get its legs back since its last game, and the Liberty bring the third-best offensive rating in the league into a matchup against a team now asking its best asset to perform on fumes. That is the total: New York does not need much of a crack in Golden State's defense to push this number, and a depleted, back-to-back defense is exactly that crack. On the spread, the fatigue cuts the other way for backing New York outright, but not enough to make Golden State a bad number. This is still a 27-11 team sitting second in the West, and the same informed money I have tracked all season is stacking up on Golden State here too, even as the public ticket count sits closer to even. A team this talented, on a short number, has plenty of margin even on tired legs. Take Golden State with the points and take the OVER tonight.

Golden State has built the stingiest defense in the WNBA, and you can read it in their recent scores. The Valkyries have won six of their last eight, and their two wins over Atlanta finished 78-75 and 77-66, the low-possession, half-court rock fights they're built for. They give up the fewest points in the league and play at a deliberate, three-heavy pace that keeps the math small. New York arrives talented but uneven, having lost three of its last four, and there's a real chance Breanna Stewart sits, which would pull a primary scorer out of an offense that's already been stop-and-start. The Liberty did surrender a pile of points in Seattle, but that was a road track meet against a fast team. This is the reverse. A defense-first home club at this pace, against a New York group that may be a weapon short, sets up for a controlled, low-scoring afternoon. The posted total is pricing in more offense than this matchup tends to allow. Take the UNDER.

Golden State has won two of three this season, and it looks to bounce back after a 69-63 loss to Chicago more than a week ago. New York has played a weak schedule consisting of Connecticut, Washington, and two games against expansion Portland, winning three of the four. The Liberty are 7-18 ATS in their past 25 games and 3-7 ATS at home dating to last season. They have gone UNDER 17 of 25 games. Golden State stayed UNDER by 34.5 points against the Sky. New York could get Sabrina Ionescu and Satou Sabally back tonight, but they are listed as day-to-day. We're getting good value here on the dog, and the Valkyries have had plenty of time to prepare for this game. Three picks: Take the Valkyries ATS (Max Play), bet a unit on the moneyline, and play the UNDER for one. 

New York has gone OVER four straight overall and six of seven road games. The Liberty are adapting to the loss of center Jonquel Jones, who will be out several weeks with an ankle injury, but they still are a prohibitive favorite in this matchup. New York has won both meetings this season by an average of 16.5 points. Golden State has held its own in its first season in the league winning seven of 13. The Valkyries' weakness is on the offensive end where it is shooting just 39.8 percent and they are last in the league with a .275 3-point shooting percentage. They still have gone OVER five of their past eight games. The Liberty hope to have Sabrina Ionescu back after she missed their last game against Seattle with a neck injury. Take the Liberty to cover, and bet this game OVER.