Golden State Valkyries vs Los Angeles Sparks Point Spread Picks

Three days ago we had the Sparks getting a mountain of points in Minnesota, and it cashed with room to spare when Los Angeles won outright, 89-82, snapping a Lynx winning streak. That's the version of this team the market keeps underpricing. Los Angeles sits at 12-18 and has been reshaped since the trade deadline, having shipped Kelsey Plum to Phoenix on August 2 for a first-round pick and guard Monique Akoa Makani. On paper that looks like a team that's packed it in. On the scoreboard it hasn't played that way: the Sparks have covered seven of their last ten games, several as sizable underdogs, while going just 3-7 straight up over that stretch. The problem isn't competitiveness, it's a defense allowing 93.9 points a game, worst mark in the league, which keeps final scores messy without ever pushing Los Angeles outside these numbers. There's no one new on the injury report either; this is a full but reshuffled group, not a banged-up one. Golden State arrives at 22-9 and has won eight of its last ten, but it's been shakier against the number than the record suggests, going just 6-4 against the spread over the same run and missing the cover in a win over Toronto by half a point. The Valkyries are also closing out the second stop of a road trip that started in Dallas Friday, a quick cross-country turnaround before this one. Put those pieces together and Los Angeles is live to keep this one inside a big number, and this shouldn't be a game that needs the number at all. At this price, the Sparks don't need to win most of these, just often enough to beat what the market implies. Take Los Angeles on the spread today, and take a flyer on the moneyline right alongside it.

Kelsey Plum scored a career-high 43 points in Sunday's overtime win over Phoenix, adding seven assists in a performance that looked less like a hot stretch and more like a player operating at her absolute peak. She's averaging 24.8 points and 6.9 assists per game this season at a .558 field goal percentage — numbers putting her firmly in the league's MVP conversation. Nneka Ogwumike adds interior production alongside Plum, and the Sparks' offensive rating ranks third in the league. Golden State is legitimate at 8-5, with Veronica Burton one of the more complete players in the West and the Valkyries shooting nearly 38% from three. But their defensive rating of 104.5 is middle-of-the-road, and a team running this kind of offensive firepower through Plum keeps any game within reach. Los Angeles is the right side tonight.

The Los Angeles offense is third in the WNBA in scoring (86.6 ppg) and second in shooting (46.3%). The Sparks are on a 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS run. They've won three in a row, including wins over Indiana (100-91) and at Seattle (108-106) as underdogs. The offense has topped 100 points in five of the last six. Golden State comes off losses to Las Vegas, 101-77 and 78-72. The offense is last in the league in shooting (39.9%) and second-to-last in 3-point shooting (31.1%). Play Los Angeles. 

Golden State is fourth in the league in offensive rebounds behind 6-1 Kayla Thornton (13 ppg, 6.4 rpg), Veronica Burton (12.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg), and rookie Janelle Salaun (10.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg). Golden State blasted the Las Vegas Aces on Saturday, 95-68, as Thornton (22 points and 11 rebounds), Burton, and Monique Billings all had double-doubles. The defense is fifth in shooting allowed (42.39%) and in defensive rebounds, while the offense is third from the free-throw line (81.3%). Los Angeles has lost four of its five home games, including three as a favorite. The offense is ninth from the charity stripe (76%), while the defense is 10th in points surrendered (83.67 per game), eighth in shooting allowed, and 10th in defensive rebounding. These teams met in L.A. two weeks ago and Golden State won, 82-73. Los Angeles shot 38.7% and missed six free throws (72.7%), while Golden State won the rebounding battle and was 19-of-21 from the free-throw line. Play Golden State ATS + Golden State on the moneyline.

Golden State will have a revenge game for the first time in its history as the expansion Valkyries look for payback for an 84-67 loss to the Sparks in their season opener. The Valkyries come off a 76-74 win over Washington on Wednesday, even while shooting only 32 percent overall and 19 percent from 3-point range. Veronica Burton led four double-figure scorers with 22 points, and Golden State overcame a 30-point scoring night by the Mystics' Brittney Sykes. Los Angeles has lost its two games since that opener, including 89-86 at Phoenix, when the Sparks scored only seven points in the third quarter and never recovered. The Valkyries have gone UNDER both their games, and Los Angeles has lost eight of 10 overall, and it is 0-5 at home dating to last season. Take the points with the Valkyries and the UNDER.