Golden State Valkyries vs Las Vegas Aces Point Spread Picks

The Valkyries rode a four-game winning streak into Friday night before Minnesota brought it to a halt at Chase Center, 81-75. They travel to Las Vegas now on a short turnaround, where the market is loading up against them. A'ja Wilson is averaging better than 26 points a game and leading the league in blocks; Chennedy Carter is right behind her at 20 on better than 60 percent shooting. As a combined threat, there is nothing like it in the WNBA this season. The last time these teams met at this building, though, the final was five points, with Gabby Williams answering nearly every Wilson bucket and Golden State staying right in the game throughout. The Valkyries own one of the stingier defenses in the league, and situational indicators lean toward road underdogs in spots like this — off a loss, facing an elite team they've consistently played tight. The number here assumes the Aces pull away. The recent history says they won't by that much. Play the Valkyries on the spread this afternoon.

Las Vegas has dropped back-to-back games, scoring 95 and 87 points in losses to the Sparks and Wings respectively, and now enters Chase Center against the stingiest defense in the WNBA. Golden State's 99.8 defensive rating leads the league by a meaningful margin, and their 78.0 points allowed per game is a sustained team-wide system, not a small-sample artifact. The Aces managed just 87 against Dallas, a defense nowhere close to Golden State's caliber. A'ja Wilson and Chennedy Carter provide genuine offensive upside, but Las Vegas has also failed to generate free throw opportunities in two straight games, which compresses the ceiling when facing a Valkyries unit that defends the paint and forces difficult looks throughout. This total is priced at a number that respects Las Vegas's scoring talent without fully weighting what Golden State does defensively on a nightly basis. This projects well UNDER the posted total, and it's my Game of the Week.

Las Vegas bounced back nicely after being humiliated in a historical blowout loss to Minnesota on Saturday. The Aces beat Golden State 101-77 the next day and go for two in a row over the Valkyries tonight. Jewell Loyd scored 27 points and Jackie Young added 20 points for Las Vegas, which hit 18 of 40 from 3-point range. The Aces are 9-2 ATS their past 11 games playing with two days rest and they have won six of nine straight up. Golden State has lost five of nine and the Valkyries will be in a letdown spot and possibly fatigued after playing five road games in eight days. Las Vegas won the past two meetings while averaging 102.5 points. Take the Aces on the moneyline.