Golden State Valkyries vs Indiana Fever Point Spread Picks

Indiana closed out a brutal four-game West Coast trip by going 3-1, punctuating it with a 109-75 demolition of the defending champion Aces on Sunday, and the Fever haven't cooled off since, winners of two straight and four of their last five. Kelsey Mitchell has been the igniter, leading Indiana in scoring for six straight games and dropping 27 points on 50 percent shooting in that Las Vegas win, while Aliyah Boston chipped in 19 points and 11 boards. Caitlin Clark is trending the right way, too, cleared for a 24-minute workload against the Aces and delivering 12 points, seven rebounds, and six assists while breaking the WNBA record for fastest to 600 career assists. Golden State's seven-game streak has been built on defense, not offense, and the Valkyries could be without leading scorer Gabby Williams, who sat out Friday's win with a back injury and remains questionable to close a five-game road trip tonight. Indiana's offense ranks first in the league in efficiency, and a short home favorite in this range is exactly the number I want to attack. Take the Fever on the moneyline. 

The second-year Valkyries have covered 63% of their lifetime games in the WNBA, including going 4-2 SU and ATS this season. That's what can happen when you have the No. 1 defense, outstanding depth, and the reigning coach of the year in Natalie Nakase. One of those non-covers, however, occurred this past Friday night when Indiana defeated Golden State, 90-82, as 5.5-point home favorites. It was a fortuitous scheduling spot for the Fever as the Valkyries had just upset the Liberty on the road the previous night. Golden State led Indiana at halftime, 44-37, but ran out of gas down the stretch. That won't be the case here. The Valkyries are rested and at home. The Fever have not played since that victory against the Valkyries. So they are rested, too, but may be rusty. Golden State defeated Connecticut, 97-70, at home this past Monday. That easy victory should be a good tune-up for this matchup. The Valkyries give up an average of 76.3 points a game, the lowest in the WNBA. The Fever surrender an average of 87 points a game. The Valkyries get tremendous crowd support, and their fan base will be up for this matchup as it will be their only chance to see Caitlin Clark at home. Take the Valkyries.

The Fever drew tremendous publicity because of Caitlin Clark. But the Golden State Warriors may be the most underrated team in the WNBA. The Valkyries went 28-17-1 (62 percent) ATS in their inaugural season last year, making the playoffs, and are 3-1 SU and ATS this season. They just held the Liberty 30 points below their season average in an 87-70 road victory this past Thursday. Indiana defeated expansion Portland, 90-73, at home this past Wednesday. The Fever needed an easy opponent because they already have controversy surrounding their usage of Clark, who was ruled out with a back injury less than two hours before tipoff against Portland. Indiana is 3-2, with wins over Portland, Seattle, and LA. Those three teams have a combined record of 5-10. None of them has a winning mark. Golden State doesn't come close to Indiana's star power. But the Valkyries are well coached and have a deep roster. They are the top defensive team in the league, giving up an average of 74.5 points per game. That is 17 points fewer than what the Fever allow per game. Take the points with the Valkyries and take the Valkyries on the moneyline.

Golden State is a strong rebounding squad and terrific defensively, No. 1 in the WNBA in shooting allowed (39.9%) and second in points given up. They're on a 7-4 straight-up run, including knocking off Seattle (84-57) as a +5 underdog, and beating this Indiana team, 88-77, three weeks ago. In that game, Golden State won the turnover battle 17-7 and allowed 43.9% shooting. Indiana is a .500 home team and ranks 12th in free-throw shooting (74.1%). They come off a loss at home to Los Angeles, 89-87, as a 5-point favorite. They've also lost two of their last three at home, both times as a favorite. Play Golden State on the moneyline.