Dallas Wings vs Washington Mystics Point Spread Picks

We had the total UNDER in this exact matchup Friday, and it cashed comfortably as Washington leaned on defense to hold Dallas to 75 in an 81-75 win. Different game tonight. The Wings arrive for the rubber match still armed with the league's most pass-heavy, up-tempo attack, and there's no incentive for Dallas to sit back and risk another halfcourt slog against a defense that just did that to them. Washington isn't hiding from pace either. The Mystics' four-game win streak includes a 100-99 track meet over the defending champion Aces, proof this defense, second-best in the league in points allowed, can still get pulled into a shootout against the right kind of attack. Shakira Austin dropped a season-high 28 in the last meeting here, Paige Bueckers answered with 23 of her own, and both sides have real playoff positioning riding on tonight's rubber match. The first-half OVER is my play. 

These two have already given us a preview this season, and it settled well below tonight's number: a 92-69 final in Dallas back in Washington's fourth game, a 23-point margin built on the same formula the Mystics have leaned on all year. Washington's defense has held opponents to 42.6% shooting this season, stingy by any measure, and its last ten games have played out at a combined 164 points a night. Dallas comes in fresh off an 82-81 loss to Atlanta, a game its starters had to shoulder almost entirely — they scored 80 of the team's 81 points — exactly the kind of grinding, possession-heavy performance that keeps a total down rather than pushing it up. Washington also arrives with a real form of its own, winners of three straight, including Tuesday's win over Connecticut, without needing to light up the scoreboard to do it. Neither club is playing fast right now, and the one time these two actually shared a floor this year, the number came in nowhere close to tonight's total. Take the UNDER tonight.

Washington's defense is eighth in shooting allowed and in defensive rebounding. They've lost three straight on this four-game road trek, allowing 99, 78, and 80 points. Dallas averages 81.7 points and is fifth in the league from the charity stripe (80.2%). The defense, however, allows the third-most points (86.5 per game) and is 12th in the 13-team league in shooting allowed. Dallas has dropped four in a row, allowing 88, 88, 85, and 88 points. They're on a 6-3 run OVER the total at home. Take Washington/Dallas OVER the total. 

Dallas seeks payback after losing 91-88 in overtime on Sunday in their first meeting of the season, and it sailed over by 12 points. The past five meetings have gone OVER and the Wings are 5-2 OVER their past seven games. Dallas has won three of its last five games as its young team is starting to come together, and No. 1 pick Paige Bueckers scored a team-leading 27 points against Indiana last night, although the Wings ultimately lost 94-86. Washington went OVER by 16.5 points in its 94-83 victory over Las Vegas on Thursday. The Mystics are 4-1 OVER following a win, and the Wings are 6-1 OVER versus the Eastern Conference. Dallas is 12-6 ATS in the past 18 meetings, including 7-3 ATS at home. Washington has lost five of its seven road games. Take the Wings on the moneyline and the OVER.