Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury Point Spread Picks

Dallas is riding a six-game winning streak that has it firmly in the West playoff picture. Two nights ago, these two teams met in Dallas, and the pace was absurd from the opening tip: Arike Ogunbowale and Paige Bueckers combined for 48 points, and the two sides traded buckets from the jump, with the first half alone blowing well past a similar posted number before the break even finished. Phoenix is still playing without Kahleah Copper, one of its top scoring options, and that hasn't slowed anything — the Mercury matched Dallas possession for possession in that same first half before fading in the third quarter. Both teams are shooting-first, pace-up rosters, and back-to-back meetings between the same two teams rarely slow down; if anything, familiarity speeds up an offense that already knows where the openings are. I had the first-half OVER two nights ago, and it cashed comfortably. Take the first-half OVER again tonight.

Phoenix trailed at the break Thursday in Portland, but the two sides combined for 93 points by halftime in a game the Mercury eventually won. Dallas closed out its home slate the same night, tied 44-44 at the break with the Sparks before pulling away, another first half that pushed right up against the number on today's ticket. Both clubs are trending toward exactly this kind of shootout start. Dallas is averaging 89.2 points a game, sixth-best in the league, and Phoenix's defense is surrendering 87.3 a night. Flip it around, and Phoenix's offense, averaging 84.4, faces a Dallas defense that allows 85.1. The one data point working against this is the teams' June meeting, when the first half was a defensive slog. That was three months and a very different rotation ago for both sides, and neither team has played that slow since. With Dallas riding a five-game winning streak and Phoenix coming off back-to-back road offensive showings, my read on the pace is a fast start again this afternoon, and we're on the number early. Take the OVER on the first-half total.

Dallas absorbed the worst loss of their season three days ago: a 100-76 hammering at Minnesota where they trailed by 27 points in the second quarter and Azzi Fudd went 2-for-12. They return home needing a response. The bounce-back spot for a focused team at home tends to produce disciplined basketball rather than a wide-open shootout, and that matters for both sides of this ticket. Phoenix arrives finishing the fourth game of a road trip, sitting at 4-9 with a bottom-three offense at 81.6 points per game. What they have shown is toughness: their last outing was an 87-81 loss at Golden State, where they trailed by 17 and clawed back to within a point in the fourth quarter. A team built to fight doesn't get blown out by eight or more on the road trip finale against a Dallas squad still shaking off a humbling loss. The total lands comfortably in the mid-160s, and the spread remains tight. Go with Phoenix on the spread and take the UNDER.

The teams have split two meetings this season, with Dallas winning the rematch 98-89 on Thursday, and the game went OVER by 21.5 points. The past six meetings have sailed OVER, and the Wings have gone OVER six of their past nine overall. Dallas has been coming on strong, winning five of seven outright, and it is on a 6-2 ATS run. Phoenix has lost two straight, and the Mercury are 4-8 ATS in their past 12 home games against the Wings. They are 11-4 OVER when playing at home versus Dallas, and the Mercury are 7-2 OVER in their past nine games overall. Phoenix is 1-5 ATS in its past six Monday games and 6-0 OVER in its past six against teams with losing records. Dallas has gone OVER four straight road games and four in a row versus teams with winning records. Take the points with the Wings and the OVER.