Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury Point Spread Picks

Dallas absorbed the worst loss of their season three days ago: a 100-76 hammering at Minnesota where they trailed by 27 points in the second quarter and Azzi Fudd went 2-for-12. They return home needing a response. The bounce-back spot for a focused team at home tends to produce disciplined basketball rather than a wide-open shootout, and that matters for both sides of this ticket. Phoenix arrives finishing the fourth game of a road trip, sitting at 4-9 with a bottom-three offense at 81.6 points per game. What they have shown is toughness: their last outing was an 87-81 loss at Golden State, where they trailed by 17 and clawed back to within a point in the fourth quarter. A team built to fight doesn't get blown out by eight or more on the road trip finale against a Dallas squad still shaking off a humbling loss. The total lands comfortably in the mid-160s, and the spread remains tight. Go with Phoenix on the spread and take the UNDER.

The teams have split two meetings this season, with Dallas winning the rematch 98-89 on Thursday, and the game went OVER by 21.5 points. The past six meetings have sailed OVER, and the Wings have gone OVER six of their past nine overall. Dallas has been coming on strong, winning five of seven outright, and it is on a 6-2 ATS run. Phoenix has lost two straight, and the Mercury are 4-8 ATS in their past 12 home games against the Wings. They are 11-4 OVER when playing at home versus Dallas, and the Mercury are 7-2 OVER in their past nine games overall. Phoenix is 1-5 ATS in its past six Monday games and 6-0 OVER in its past six against teams with losing records. Dallas has gone OVER four straight road games and four in a row versus teams with winning records. Take the points with the Wings and the OVER.

Combine the Mercury (-600) and the Lynx (-735) into a 2-team parlay at -307 odds.

Dallas is still searching for its second win, and it has an opportunity against Phoenix, which has lost three of its last five games, including a 89-77 home loss to Seattle on Saturday. The Mercury only had two double-figure scorers and missed 17 of 25 from 3-point range. They are 8-14-1 ATS in their past 23 games and 3-8 ATS in their past 11 home games against Dallas, which has won eight of 10 outright at Phoenix. The Mercury are 6-4 this year, but their wins have come against opponents with a combined win-loss record of 18-28. Paige Bueckers has cleared concussion protocol and is reportedly not expected to have any minutes restrictions for tonight's game. Take the Wings ATS and on the moneyline.