Dallas Wings vs Minnesota Lynx Point Spread Picks

Minnesota Lynx spent most of July looking unbeatable, ripping off ten straight before Los Angeles snapped that run on Thursday. The Lynx answered the way the league's best teams usually do, closing out Las Vegas at home on Saturday with Napheesa Collier looking fully healthy again since returning from ankle surgery. I liked Minnesota giving points in that one, and we cashed comfortably as the Lynx pulled away late. That win puts Minnesota right back on the floor today for the second half of a back-to-back, hosting a Dallas Wings team that's rested and looking to snap its own two-game slide, one that includes blowing a 20-point third-quarter lead in Washington and getting run off the floor by Golden State by 18 two nights later. Paige Bueckers has carried Dallas all season, leading the club at 20 points and nearly six assists a night, and she isn't on today's injury report at all. Minnesota still ranks second in the league in scoring and rebounding and third in points allowed, and none of that changes overnight. But asking a group that played Saturday afternoon to also contain a healthy, motivated backcourt on zero rest this afternoon is a real ask, and that combination, tired legs on defense against a Dallas team with legitimate firepower, sets up scoring at both ends and makes the rested underdog live to cover. Take the Wings to cover this afternoon, and grab the OVER alongside it.

Dallas lost in Las Vegas on Thursday, but the Wings walked out of that trip having taken the season series from the Aces two games to one, something they hadn't done in years. That's the team worth respecting here: an 11-7 club with two guards in Paige Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale who can put up points against anyone. Minnesota comes in at 14-4 and is rightly favored, but the price leans on the idea of the Lynx as a runaway offense, and that isn't their identity. Minnesota wins with the league's best defense, and when they face teams capable of staying with them, these games settle into the 150s and 160s. Even the 100-76 result in their last meeting up in Minnesota came in under the total. A competent Dallas team at home drags the Lynx into a half-court game where the favorite can't separate and the scoreboard stays quiet, and that single dynamic carries both sides of this ticket. A slow, defensive game keeps the Wings inside the number and holds the total down at the same time. The market set this line bracing for a guard shootout. What shows up is a grind. Back the Wings on the spread and take the UNDER this afternoon.

Dallas quietly leads the WNBA in offensive rating through 11 games — with Jessica Shepard operating as a reliable double-double presence and Azzi Fudd growing into the No. 1 pick role — even as Arike Ogunbowale has yet to fully hit her stride. They put up 104 points against Los Angeles on Friday without Ogunbowale carrying the load, and this offense's ceiling may not have been tested yet. Tonight, though, they walk into Target Center and the WNBA's most suffocating defense. Minnesota allows 78.4 points per game — the league's best mark — with a defensive rating of 97.1 built and maintained without Napheesa Collier in the lineup. The Lynx don't have an off night on that end. The same defense that has powered a seven-game winning streak and a 9-2 record will be compressed in this game. That compression is what ties both sides of this ticket together: it keeps the combined scoring well below the posted total, while Dallas's offensive firepower gives them a floor that makes getting blown out of this gym a difficult proposition, even against the best team in the WNBA. Go with Dallas on the spread and play the UNDER.

Minnesota plays its second straight on the road. They come off an impressive win as an underdog at Phoenix, allowing just 37% shooting. The defense is third in the WNBA in shooting (39.6%) and in 3-point shooting allowed. Dallas comes off its first loss, dropping one at home to Atlanta, 77-72. The defense played well (38% shooting), but the offense shot just 38%. They're fifth in the 15-team WNBA in 3-point shooting allowed. Take Minnesota/Dallas UNDER the total. 

Since upsetting defending champion New York, 92-82, Dallas hasn't been winning many games but has been hanging in there. They have had losses by 3, 10, 9, 11, 12, 9, and 6 points, along with two one-point losses, and an 81-80 win at Indiana as a +8.5 underdog. Dallas is working on two days of rest, while Minnesota is on one day of rest. Minnesota has split its last six games, losing its last home game to Seattle, 93-79, as a 9-point favorite. Minnesota comes off a win over Connecticut, clinching the regular-season title. They've won three games against Dallas by an average of 11.3 points, and in none of those wins would they have covered this point spread. Play Dallas.