Dallas Wings vs Minnesota Lynx

Minnesota plays its second straight away from home, as well as its fourth road game in the last six contests. They played two nights ago at Phoenix. They're eighth in the 12-team league in offensive rebounds while Dallas ranks second. Dallas is working on two days of rest after a 93-90 upset of Las Vegas at home as a +9.5 dog. The Dallas offense is fifth in points scored and shooting (44.67%), plus sixth from the free throw line (77.9%). They're also sixth defensively in steals. This is their third straight home game, winning the first two, and this is a strong situational spot for the big home dog. Play Dallas. 

Minnesota is in a letdown spot after winning the Commissioner's Cup in a 94-89 victory over New York on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Dallas is looking to snap an 11-game losing streak and the Wings are getting huge odds value in this matchup. Dallas has been off since Sunday and the Wings are 9-2 ATS their past 11 games playing with at least three days rest. The last meeting was on June 17 and the Lynx outscored Dallas 24-15 in the fourth quarter to win 90-78 although the Wings covered the big number and shot 48 percent. The difference in the game was the fact the Lynx hit 23 of 24 free throws and Dallas got to the line just twice and made one of three. Look for an upset in this matchup. Take the Wings ATS and on the moneyline.

Dallas is averaging 81 points per game ranked fourth in the WNBA in shooting (43.8%) and second from the free throw line (84.5%). Dallas is 30-16 ATS as an underdog, including 22-8 ATS as a road dog. They're also on a 29-17 ATS run on the road and 19-7 ATS revenging a loss where the opponent scored 85+ points. Minnesota is eighth from the free throw line (78.5%) and in turnovers in the 12-team WNBA. Minnesota has been this big a favorite only one other time this season, in the last game, and failed to cover in an 81-76 win over Los Angeles. With Dallas 14-5 ATS when playing three or fewer games in 10 days, back the big dog. Play Dallas as a Max Play. 

Dallas has been a moneymaker this season with a 5-1 ATS mark despite playing its past four games on the road and it comes off a 74-72 loss as an 8.5-point underdog against Connecticut after winning at Phoenix and Los Angeles. The game against the Sun stayed UNDER by 15 points even though Dallas shot 52 percent, but Connecticut hit only two 3-point tries. Minnesota got hot from beyond the arc and made 14 3-pointers as it routed Phoenix on Friday. Dallas has covered five road games in a row and the Wings are 7-1 ATS following an ATS win and 6-0 ATS after any loss. The Lynx shot just 37 percent and scored 66 points their previous game against Las Vegas and it went UNDER by 23 points. Take the points with the Wings and the UNDER.

The Minnesota Lynx are just 16-17 on the season, but despite that in the top-heavy WNBA, they would be a #6 seed if the playoffs started today. The Dallas Wings are 18-15 and would be the #4 seed. These teams tend to get into fast-paced offensive games as 20 of the last 33 meetings have played OVER the total, including five of the past six meetings (170+ points scored). Minnesota has played eight of their last 11 OVER, and Dallas is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 games. Both these teams like the uptempo style, and this one looks to get well into the 170s. When teams try to make a statement they tend to play quicker and try to get an early advantage against their opponent, especially when they think they are better than or equal caliber. A game played late in the season (July-August), with a first-half total set at 65.5 or fewer points played OVER to a record of 171-94. Bet the first-half OVER, and play the full game total OVER.