Dallas Wings vs Minnesota Lynx Point Spread Picks

Dallas lost in Las Vegas on Thursday, but the Wings walked out of that trip having taken the season series from the Aces two games to one, something they hadn't done in years. That's the team worth respecting here: an 11-7 club with two guards in Paige Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale who can put up points against anyone. Minnesota comes in at 14-4 and is rightly favored, but the price leans on the idea of the Lynx as a runaway offense, and that isn't their identity. Minnesota wins with the league's best defense, and when they face teams capable of staying with them, these games settle into the 150s and 160s. Even the 100-76 result in their last meeting up in Minnesota came in under the total. A competent Dallas team at home drags the Lynx into a half-court game where the favorite can't separate and the scoreboard stays quiet, and that single dynamic carries both sides of this ticket. A slow, defensive game keeps the Wings inside the number and holds the total down at the same time. The market set this line bracing for a guard shootout. What shows up is a grind. Back the Wings on the spread and take the UNDER this afternoon.

Dallas quietly leads the WNBA in offensive rating through 11 games — with Jessica Shepard operating as a reliable double-double presence and Azzi Fudd growing into the No. 1 pick role — even as Arike Ogunbowale has yet to fully hit her stride. They put up 104 points against Los Angeles on Friday without Ogunbowale carrying the load, and this offense's ceiling may not have been tested yet. Tonight, though, they walk into Target Center and the WNBA's most suffocating defense. Minnesota allows 78.4 points per game — the league's best mark — with a defensive rating of 97.1 built and maintained without Napheesa Collier in the lineup. The Lynx don't have an off night on that end. The same defense that has powered a seven-game winning streak and a 9-2 record will be compressed in this game. That compression is what ties both sides of this ticket together: it keeps the combined scoring well below the posted total, while Dallas's offensive firepower gives them a floor that makes getting blown out of this gym a difficult proposition, even against the best team in the WNBA. Go with Dallas on the spread and play the UNDER.

Minnesota plays its second straight on the road. They come off an impressive win as an underdog at Phoenix, allowing just 37% shooting. The defense is third in the WNBA in shooting (39.6%) and in 3-point shooting allowed. Dallas comes off its first loss, dropping one at home to Atlanta, 77-72. The defense played well (38% shooting), but the offense shot just 38%. They're fifth in the 15-team WNBA in 3-point shooting allowed. Take Minnesota/Dallas UNDER the total. 

Since upsetting defending champion New York, 92-82, Dallas hasn't been winning many games but has been hanging in there. They have had losses by 3, 10, 9, 11, 12, 9, and 6 points, along with two one-point losses, and an 81-80 win at Indiana as a +8.5 underdog. Dallas is working on two days of rest, while Minnesota is on one day of rest. Minnesota has split its last six games, losing its last home game to Seattle, 93-79, as a 9-point favorite. Minnesota comes off a win over Connecticut, clinching the regular-season title. They've won three games against Dallas by an average of 11.3 points, and in none of those wins would they have covered this point spread. Play Dallas.

The teams already have met twice this season and Dallas came much closer the second time covering as an 11-point underdog in an 85-81 loss on May 21. What's more, Paige Bueckers has cleared concussion protocol and is expected to return for today's game. This is the biggest game of the year so far for the Wings, who have been competitive while not being able to come out on top in most games and now will oppose undefeated Minnesota. The Lynx are only 1-5 ATS their past six games as the oddsmakers consistently have them favored by too many points although they did finally cover against Phoenix on Tuesday. Dallas is 4-1 ATS the past five meetings and it has won five of its past seven home games outright against the Lynx. Take the Wings ATS and on the moneyline.