Dallas Wings vs Los Angeles Sparks

Dallas is home and favored though they're the worst team defensively in the league surrendering 90.2 points per game. Los Angeles comes off close losses to Connecticut and Washington. They've covered four of the last six, part of an 11-8 ATS run, including 7-3 ATS on the road. Dallas is also last in defensive rebounding and L.A. has a big frontcourt that can take advantage with 6-3 Dearica Hamby (17.7 ppg, 10.1 rpg), 6-2 Rickie Jackson (11.9 ppg), and 6-6 Azura Stevens (11 ppg, 6.9 rpg). Dallas is 3-9 ATS at home, on a 3-12 spread run overall, and is last in the league in field goal shooting allowed (46.92%). They were favored at home against Los Angeles last month but lost, 87-81, allowing 50% shooting. Play Los Angeles. 

Both teams are having miserable seasons, but Los Angeles won the last meeting 81-72 on June 7 after losing by a point the first time the teams met this season. Dallas has not covered the spread since a 94-88 upset victory over Minnesota on June 27 and the Wings are 0-6 ATS and 5-1 straight up since then. The Stars lost by an average of 17.5 points on a two-game trip against Las Vegas and Phoenix. Dallas is 3-13 ATS its past 16 games following a loss, and it has covered just one of eight home games. The Stars are 2-15 ATS their past 17 games overall, including 0-7 ATS versus opponents with losing records. The Sparks have covered the number of their past four Saturday games. Take the Sparks to cover. 

Dallas is on a 4-2 spread run ranked fifth in the league in scoring, third in shooting (44%), and second from the free-throw line (84.1%). Dallas is on a 29-16 ATS run on the road and 27-14 ATS after a defeat. Los Angeles is 10th in the 12-team WNBA in scoring, eighth in shooting, and 11th from the charity stripe (74.6%), while the defense is ninth in points surrendered (83.2 per game). Los Angeles is on a 1-5 SU/ATS run, including an 84-83 loss at home to this Dallas squad as a favorite. L.A. is 6-18 ATS at home after a loss, including 3-11 ATS on their home court after a double-digit defeat. Play Dallas. 

Los Angeles has won and covered three of the past four meetings and this is the first time the teams have met this season. Dallas is playing a back-to-back after defeating Phoenix 107-92 last night while shooting 52 percent overall and 50 percent on 10-for-20 from 3-point range. Arike Ogunbowale scored 40 points for the Wings, who had averaged only 79.7 points their first three games of the season. We can expect the Wings to cool off considerably playing consecutive nights on the road and they are 2-5 ATS playing on no rest and 3-9-1 ATS their past 13 Sunday games dating to last season. The Sparks are 13-6-2 ATS their past 21 games and Dallas is dealing with several injuries and the bench scored a total of only 12 points on Saturday night against the Mercury. The Wings lost their previous two games against Atlanta and Chicago. Take the Sparks as my WNBA Game Of The Month.

I like the way this game sets up. The LA Sparks have been left for dead as they have not only lost seven straight games, they have not covered any of them. A closer look reveals that the Sparks match up well with the Dallas Wings. Los Angeles is 3-10 in their last 13 games, with all three wins coming vs Dallas! They have won two of the three games by double-digits, one at home, and one on the road. Sometimes a team just has a favorable set of matchups vs a certain opponent and that has certainly been the case this season. The last month of the season has seen the Dallas Wings lose just three times. One of the losses was to the best team in the league, Las Vegas, and the other two vs the LA team. I'm going to ride the matchup here and take the LA Sparks, on the money line.