Dallas Wings vs Los Angeles Sparks Point Spread Picks

We had the Sparks at a plus number against Minnesota Wednesday and cashed comfortably, Los Angeles playing loose without the pressure of protecting a lead, covering a spread built for a team that hadn't needed to run one up nightly. That same shorthanded look is back today. Kelsey Plum remains out with the lower leg injury that's now kept her sidelined for the better part of a month, and the Sparks showed exactly what that costs Friday in Chicago, shooting six of 26 from three and coughing up 18 turnovers in a loss that wasn't as competitive as the final score suggested. Dallas, meanwhile, is playing its best basketball of the season, winners of five straight and getting monster efficiency from Paige Bueckers, who has topped 20 points in seven of her last eight games. The gap in form is real, and so is the number. But I like a team already missing its go-to scorer to play loose and cover a spread built for someone else's ceiling, the same look that let LA hang around in a game it had no business staying in earlier this week. The Sparks are the right side this afternoon.

The Sparks dropped their second game in three tries Tuesday, falling to Las Vegas 69-79 at home. The offense has been the story — Los Angeles has put up 69, 81, and 92 in its last three outings, a volatile range that tells you this attack can go quiet without warning. Dallas just held Seattle to 56 points in a 23-point win on Wednesday, and with Arike Ogunbowale still mired in a season-long slump — 31.3% from the field — the Wings' own scoring ceiling is capped. The market is pricing this total on LA's reputation as a defensive sieve from the season's first weeks, but the Sparks have held opponents to 79, 84, and 87 in their last three. The number hasn't caught up to the tape. Bet the UNDER.

Dallas came close to defeating the Sparks for the first time in three meetings before falling 81-80 on Aug. 20. The Wings will have one last chance in a triple-revenge spot against Los Angeles, which has lost four of its past six games and the Sparks are 1-9 ATS their past 10. Los Angeles hasn't had much of a home advanatge losing 17 of 25 on its own court, including an 8-12 record this year. The Wings can have something good to think about heading into next season as they play the spoiler role in this matchup. The Sparks cannot afford any losses if they want to sneak into the playoffs and Dallas will look to rookie Paige Bueckers, who poured in 44 points against the Sparks the last meeting. Los Angeles is playing its fourth game in seven days. Take the Wings on the moneyline.

Los Angeles has a winning road mark (9-7). They're on a 10-4 run with an offense that is third in the WNBA in scoring (86.3 ppg), second in shooting (46.1%), and third from 3-point land (35.3%). Meanwhile, Dallas is 5-12 at home. The offense is 11th in the 13-team league in field goal shooting (41.6%) and 12th from long range (31.3%). Dallas is on a 3-11 run, including 1-6 at home. L.A. won the only meeting between these teams on this court in June, 93-79, shooting 55.6% while Dallas shot 42.5%. The wagering value is on the visitors to win the game. Play Los Angeles on the moneyline.