Dallas Wings vs Los Angeles Sparks Point Spread Picks

Los Angeles is 15-25 and out of the playoff picture, but Dallas needs this game more than the standings suggest. The Wings are fighting to climb out of the 8-seed, and their remaining schedule is stacked with teams like the Sparks that have nothing left to play for, which is exactly the kind of spot where a number gets squeezed too far. Dallas is 15-18 against the spread this season, a number that argues against trusting tonight's line, and the Wings are doing this without Alanna Smith, a key forward ruled out with a leg injury. Los Angeles has actually been the better side of this argument all year, sitting at 18-16 against the number despite the ugly overall record, an offense that can still put points on the board even when the wins aren't there. Paige Bueckers and the Wings are live, but this line asks Dallas to be markedly better than it's proven to be as a favorite. Los Angeles is the right side on the spread tonight.

We had the Sparks at a plus number against Minnesota Wednesday and cashed comfortably, Los Angeles playing loose without the pressure of protecting a lead, covering a spread built for a team that hadn't needed to run one up nightly. That same shorthanded look is back today. Kelsey Plum remains out with the lower leg injury that's now kept her sidelined for the better part of a month, and the Sparks showed exactly what that costs Friday in Chicago, shooting six of 26 from three and coughing up 18 turnovers in a loss that wasn't as competitive as the final score suggested. Dallas, meanwhile, is playing its best basketball of the season, winners of five straight and getting monster efficiency from Paige Bueckers, who has topped 20 points in seven of her last eight games. The gap in form is real, and so is the number. But I like a team already missing its go-to scorer to play loose and cover a spread built for someone else's ceiling, the same look that let LA hang around in a game it had no business staying in earlier this week. The Sparks are the right side this afternoon.

The Sparks dropped their second game in three tries Tuesday, falling to Las Vegas 69-79 at home. The offense has been the story — Los Angeles has put up 69, 81, and 92 in its last three outings, a volatile range that tells you this attack can go quiet without warning. Dallas just held Seattle to 56 points in a 23-point win on Wednesday, and with Arike Ogunbowale still mired in a season-long slump — 31.3% from the field — the Wings' own scoring ceiling is capped. The market is pricing this total on LA's reputation as a defensive sieve from the season's first weeks, but the Sparks have held opponents to 79, 84, and 87 in their last three. The number hasn't caught up to the tape. Bet the UNDER.

Dallas came close to defeating the Sparks for the first time in three meetings before falling 81-80 on Aug. 20. The Wings will have one last chance in a triple-revenge spot against Los Angeles, which has lost four of its past six games and the Sparks are 1-9 ATS their past 10. Los Angeles hasn't had much of a home advanatge losing 17 of 25 on its own court, including an 8-12 record this year. The Wings can have something good to think about heading into next season as they play the spoiler role in this matchup. The Sparks cannot afford any losses if they want to sneak into the playoffs and Dallas will look to rookie Paige Bueckers, who poured in 44 points against the Sparks the last meeting. Los Angeles is playing its fourth game in seven days. Take the Wings on the moneyline.