Dallas Wings vs Golden State Valkyries

Dallas walked into Las Vegas on Monday and hammered the defending champs by 30, the kind of result that says the Wings' young core is starting to click. Paige Bueckers is steering the offense, and at 9-5, this is a real team. Tonight's puzzle is the venue. Golden State sits 9-5 too, owns the league's second-best defense, allowing under 78 points a night, and has won three in a row at home, grinding out low-scoring games in the 70s and 80s. So it's Dallas's offense against the Valkyries' defense, on the road, priced as a near coin flip. That's the value. Golden State wins close and ugly, which keeps a live underdog one shooting run away from stealing it, and Dallas has the firepower to land that run. The Wings' own defense is the worry, since they give up points in bunches, but plus money on a game this even is the right price to be holding. Go with Dallas to win it tonight.

Dallas has had two days off after playing the two best teams in the league, Minnesota and Atlanta. They're No. 1 in the league in offensive rebounding. Dallas is 4-4 ATS in its last eight road games, covering as underdogs of +6.5, +11, +9.5, and +8. Golden State focuses on defense, as the offense is 10th in the 13-league in scoring, ninth from long range, and last in shooting (41%). They're working on one day of rest, and this is the first time all season they've been a double-digit favorite. Play Dallas. 

Golden State won the last meeting 86-76 on July 25. The Valkyries will attempt to end a three-game skid as they fight for a playoff spot in their first year of existence. They have won and covered five of seven road games and Dallas is just 7-11 ATS at home. Golden State has covered five straight against teams with losing records. The Valkyries are 4-1 ATS following a loss and 4-1 ATS playing with one day of rest. The Wings have lost four in a row and nine of 10. They have gone OVER seven of 10 home games and the Wings allow 87.4 points per game this season. Dallas comes off a 95-60 shellacking against Seattle and the Wings have allowed an average of 89.9 points their past 10 games. Take the Valkyries and the OVER.

Golden State got off to a better-than-expected start in its first year as an expansion team, but the Valkyries have cooled off considerably while losing five of their past six games and covering the spread in just two of them. The Valkyries are 1-4 ATS in their past five following a loss, and Dallas has covered five of six against Western Conference opponents. The Wings have gone OVER nine of 13 overall and six of eight on the road. They won the first meeting 80-71 on June 17, and the Wings come off an impressive 87-63 victory against Seattle, which was held to 31 percent shooting and 4-for-21 from 3-point distance. Arike Ogunbowale led Dallas with 20 points, and the Wings hit 10 of 23 3-point tries. Take the Wings ATS, on the moneyline, and the OVER.

The Golden State Warriors have been playing like anything but an expansion team, as they are riding a three-game win streak and have improved to 7-3 ATS this season. The Valkyries have been underdogs in their past three games and won them all outright, including a 76-70 victory as a 10-point underdog against Seattle on Saturday. Kayla Thornton scored 22 points and the Valkyries beat the Storm while hitting just three from 3-point distance. Dallas is 1-11 and 4-8 ATS, with its only win coming against the lowly Connecticut on May 27. The Wings have lost seven in a row since then, covering the number in just two of them. Dallas is 0-5 both straight up and against the spread in its past five home games. The Wings are 0-4 ATS playing with at least three days' rest. Golden State has covered five of six against the Western Conference. Take the Valkyries.