Dallas Wings vs Golden State Valkyries Point Spread Picks

Golden State is 21-9, tied for the second-best record in the league, winners of 11 of their last 13, and coming off a 92-81 win over Toronto on Tuesday. Dallas is 19-12 and nursing a gut-punch loss: a 20-point third-quarter lead in Washington evaporated as the Wings missed 12 of their final 14 shots in the fourth. We had the first-half OVER in that exact Washington game two nights ago, and it cashed comfortably, both offenses combining for triple digits before halftime, right before Dallas's offense came apart down the stretch. That's the swing factor tonight. Golden State brings one of the league's stingiest defenses on the road, built to turn a track meet into a half-court grind, and Dallas has now shown twice in the past week that its offense can stall out the moment a game slows down. The Valkyries have also won four of the last five meetings between these two clubs, including a 91-80 win the last time these teams played at Chase Center. Getting Golden State with the field against a team that just blew a 20-point lead is the right side, and the total should follow the same script: two capable offenses, but a Dallas club that can't be trusted to keep producing once the pace drops against a defense built to make sure it does. Take Golden State on the spread as my Max Play tonight, and grab the total UNDER right alongside it.

Dallas walked into Las Vegas on Monday and hammered the defending champs by 30, the kind of result that says the Wings' young core is starting to click. Paige Bueckers is steering the offense, and at 9-5, this is a real team. Tonight's puzzle is the venue. Golden State sits 9-5 too, owns the league's second-best defense, allowing under 78 points a night, and has won three in a row at home, grinding out low-scoring games in the 70s and 80s. So it's Dallas's offense against the Valkyries' defense, on the road, priced as a near coin flip. That's the value. Golden State wins close and ugly, which keeps a live underdog one shooting run away from stealing it, and Dallas has the firepower to land that run. The Wings' own defense is the worry, since they give up points in bunches, but plus money on a game this even is the right price to be holding. Go with Dallas to win it tonight.

Dallas has had two days off after playing the two best teams in the league, Minnesota and Atlanta. They're No. 1 in the league in offensive rebounding. Dallas is 4-4 ATS in its last eight road games, covering as underdogs of +6.5, +11, +9.5, and +8. Golden State focuses on defense, as the offense is 10th in the 13-league in scoring, ninth from long range, and last in shooting (41%). They're working on one day of rest, and this is the first time all season they've been a double-digit favorite. Play Dallas. 

Golden State won the last meeting 86-76 on July 25. The Valkyries will attempt to end a three-game skid as they fight for a playoff spot in their first year of existence. They have won and covered five of seven road games and Dallas is just 7-11 ATS at home. Golden State has covered five straight against teams with losing records. The Valkyries are 4-1 ATS following a loss and 4-1 ATS playing with one day of rest. The Wings have lost four in a row and nine of 10. They have gone OVER seven of 10 home games and the Wings allow 87.4 points per game this season. Dallas comes off a 95-60 shellacking against Seattle and the Wings have allowed an average of 89.9 points their past 10 games. Take the Valkyries and the OVER.