Connecticut Sun vs Washington Mystics

Connecticut has beaten the Mystics three times this season and the past eight meetings overall. Washington shot 51 percent on June 27 and still lost to the Sun in overtime 94-91. The Sun do come off an 84-80 defeat to Indiana on Wednesday, but they are 10-4 ATS following a loss and 9-1 UNDER playing with two days rest. Connecticut is 8-3 UNDER its past 11 road games and it has stayed UNDER 10 of 14 Saturday games. Washington has gone UNDER four in a row overall and it has four straight UNDERS playing with two days rest. The Sun lead the league defensively allowing only 73.7 points per game and they are #2 in 3-point defense allowing a .311 percentage. Washington is third-worst scoring 78.7 points per game while shooting just 42.9 percent. Take the Sun and the UNDER as my Total Game of the Month.

Connecticut has had three full days off to rest and try and end this three-game skid. The offense is fourth in the WNBA in field goal shooting (44%) and third in turnovers. Connecticut is 19-8 ATS on the road when playing five or fewer games in 14 days, plus 19-10 ATS versus teams that make 33% or better from long range. Washington is 10th in shooting, eighth from the free-throw line, 10th in turnovers, and last in rebounding. Washington is 21-42 ATS after covering six or seven of their last eight and Connecticut has won the last six meetings against them. Play Connecticut. 

Washington scored 80 points in the opener but the defense struggled in an 85-80 loss to New York. Washington couldn't hold a 67-59 lead entering the fourth quarter. Washington is 29-14 OVER the total as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points. Connecticut was third in the WNBA in field goal shooting last season and fourth in points scored. They opened the new campaign with a 92-71 rout of Indiana shooting 48.5%. The last time these teams met on this court, Connecticut won an offensive show, 92-84. And NBA road teams like Washington off a loss to a division rival versus an opponent off a win over a division rival are 41-15 OVER when the total is 150+. Take Washington/Connecticut OVER the total. 

Connecticut had lost three in a row before defeating Chicago 79-73 on Sunday due to the Sky's terrible 3-point shooting as they went 3-for-21 from beyond the arc. Now the Sun go to Washington and the Mystics are in triple revenge after losing the first three meetings this season. This has been a good day of the week for the Mystics as they are 9-4 ATS their past 13 Tuesday games and they'll take any help they can get as they battle for a playoff spot. Washington has won two of three and it is 8-3 ATS its past 11 home games. Connecticut is just 2-5 ATS its past seven games. The Sun has gone OVER nine of 13 following an ATS win and five of seven against teams with losing records. Washington is 5-2 OVER after an ATS loss. Take the Mystics as a Max Play for the game, and play the first half to go OVER the total.