Connecticut Sun vs Washington Mystics Point Spread Picks

I had Washington getting points two nights ago in Indianapolis and Washington didn't just cover; it blew right through the number, beating Indiana by sixteen. That's the form Washington carries tonight: two straight wins, 7-3 in its last ten, locked into the East's third seed but still with ground to make up on Indiana for the two. Connecticut is the opposite story, 10-32 and losers of five straight, already finished playing for anything but pride, and down four rotation players to injury. Washington has already beaten Connecticut twice this season, most recently a 92-84 win in late July. Connecticut's lone win in the series came back in June, before the injuries piled up. Washington's defense ranks second in the league at 82.8 points allowed per game; Connecticut's offense ranks dead last at 78.7. Las Vegas has won five straight and scores at the fourth-highest clip in the league at 91.2 points a game, locked into the West's third seed but still chasing ground on Golden State for the two. Los Angeles is 16-26, buried in a race it's long been out of, and its defense ranks 14th in the league, allowing 91.7 a night. Las Vegas has beaten Los Angeles twice this season, including a win in their last meeting back in June. Los Angeles' one win in the series was a road upset in Las Vegas back in May. Both sides are banged up tonight: Las Vegas is without forward NaLyssa Smith, but Los Angeles is down two of its top frontcourt options in Cameron Brink and Dearica Hamby, the deeper hole of the two.Golden State has won six straight and sits a single game behind Minnesota for the league's top seed, playing meaningful basketball every night down the stretch. Golden State's defense is the best in the WNBA by a wide margin, allowing 74.8 points a game, eight fewer than the next-closest team. Portland has lost four straight and hasn't beaten Golden State all season, dropping all three meetings, the most recent a 16-point loss just three days ago. Golden State is missing center Iliana Rupert tonight, but this defense has been the league's stingiest across the whole season, and Portland is dealing with a far bigger hole, playing without seven players to injury. None of these are prices worth laying on their own.The moneyline odds on each of these three favorites run from -900 up to -1340, numbers that cost far more straight up than they're worth. Stack all three on one ticket, and it drops to -335, a price built on backing three of the league's best teams against three of its worst. None of these sides need to cover anything tonight. They just need to win, and I like all three to do exactly that. 

Connecticut walked into a buzzsaw last time out, an 88-123 blowout in Indianapolis that ballooned to a 36-point deficit before it was over, but buried in that loss was a version of this team that's live at these numbers: 50 points in the paint and a heavy diet at the free-throw line, the profile of a road underdog that keeps games honest even while losing badly. Washington has won two straight and sits two games clear of .500, but this is a team that wins with defense and pace control, not scoring bursts, ranking near the bottom of the league in points per game itself at 80.8. Neither side is built to run up a number. Connecticut's own offense checks in just as light, at exactly 80 a night, and a matchup between two teams that struggle to crack the mid-80s on a given night sets up a total that's already been priced down into the high 150s for good reason. That same offensive limitation cuts both ways for this ticket: it's exactly why Connecticut, buried as they are in the standings, has kept spreads honest on the road this season, and why the total has a real shot to stay under even with Washington playing well. I like Connecticut to hang around behind a favorable pace, and I like the pace itself to produce a lower-scoring night than the number suggests. Take Connecticut with the points and the UNDER.

Washington's defense is allowing 81 points per game and ranks seventh in shooting allowed (44%), on an 8-6 run OVER the total. In the last four games, they've allowed 80, 86, 84, and 88 points. The offense is sixth in the 13-team WNBA in shooting and fifth from 3-point land (33.9%). Connecticut won the last game at Washington, scoring 80 points while shooting 45.6%. The defense is 10th in points given up (86.2 per game) and last in field goal shooting allowed (46.34%). Take Washington/Connecticut OVER the total.