Connecticut Sun vs Toronto Tempo Point Spread Picks

Connecticut has been the worst team in the league since the opening tip. Sitting at 1-8, the Sun rank near the bottom of the WNBA in offensive rating — they simply cannot score with enough volume or consistency to put teams away, and their defense hasn't compensated for it. They've dropped five of their last six games, and home court hasn't provided much cushion. Toronto is an expansion team still finding itself on the road — their defensive rating drops significantly away from home — but this matchup against a Sun squad that can't generate offense softens that concern considerably. Brittney Sykes showed exactly what she can do against Connecticut in Commissioner's Cup play, going for 38 points in a Toronto overtime win. Marina Mabrey, drafted from the Sun in the expansion pool, knows this roster inside out. The -1.5 price on the road against the league's most offensively limited team is a number worth laying. Toronto covers tonight.

The Connecticut Sun have dropped 11 of 13 games this season, but the margins don't match the record. Both of their last two losses came by single digits — five at Chicago, nine to New York at home — and the Liberty are sitting at 8-4, among the better teams in the Eastern Conference. Connecticut outscored New York in the second quarter and closed the final frame even. A team keeping pace against that competition doesn't fall apart against a Toronto club that shot 4-for-22 from three in its last home win. The Tempo are legitimately better at home — the spread reflects it — but laying this number against a Sun squad that drew 23 free throw attempts against the Liberty asks for a margin the recent results don't support. Connecticut's free-throw shooting has been a liability, hovering near 56 percent in recent outings, leaving points on the floor. But drawing 23 free throw attempts in a single game puts points on the board even at that rate. The ML at this price adds a second layer worth the flyer. Connecticut needs to win this game roughly one time in four to turn a profit at these odds, and they've already proven capable of pulling the upset — they beat the Sparks earlier this season. Take the Sun on the spread for a bigger play, and grab another unit on the moneyline.