Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Point Spread Picks

Connecticut just walked into this same building two nights ago and left with a 13-point win, Leila Lacan erupting for a career-high 26 points on 10 of 13 shooting as the Sun pulled away in the fourth quarter. Now they get an immediate return trip, and the number has barely moved to account for it. Phoenix has lost five straight, and its defense has been the story of the skid, letting opponents shoot at a rate that's climbed every week while the offense has gone cold from deep over the same stretch. Connecticut, for all its record implies, has been the more competitive team lately, covering the spread in seven of its past eight games and shooting better than 47 percent from the floor over its last five. Sharp money has already found its way to the Sun today, a sign the market isn't buying Phoenix as a real favorite off a result like Friday's, and neither am I. Nothing about this Mercury team suggests it fixes a five-game losing streak against the same opponent that just beat it. Side with Connecticut and the points today.

Phoenix averages 82.9 points this season, and Connecticut allows 85.9. Three of the past four meetings have gone OVER, and the Sun have gone OVER four of their past six games while yielding 89.2 points per game. Connecticut lost to Chicago on Wednesday as the Sky shot 48 percent overall and 47 percent from 3-point range. The Sun have gone OVER four in a row playing with two days rest, and they are 8-2 OVER their past 10 games against Western Conference opponents. The Mercury features a balanced offense with four players averaging double figures, led by Satou Sabally with 16.3 points per game. Take the OVER.

Connecticut is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings, including four outright wins. The Sun covered as a 14.5-point favorite, losing 83-75 on June 18 in the only meeting this season, even while shooting only 37 percent. The Sun are on a current 7-2 ATS run, and they have won seven of nine road contests against Phoenix. The Mercury have lost five of seven with a 2-5 ATS mark, and the two wins were against Chicago and Washington, who have a combined record of 20-36. Connecticut has shown flashes of coming together as a team after a slow start, including a 95-64 blowout of Golden State on July 27 and a 78-62 victory over the defending champion Liberty on Friday. All-Star forward Satou Sabally (17.2 points per game) is out indefinitely for Phoenix due to a personal matter. Take the Sun ATS (best bet), and grab them on the moneyline for a half-unit.