Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury

The teams met for the first time this year, and Connecticut won and covered all four meetings in 2024. The Sun are a much different squad this season, but Phoenix is laying too many points in this matchup, especially on the road. The Mercury have split their four road games this season, including a 23-point blowout loss at Minnesota. They are 1-4-1 ATS in their past six games at Connecticut, and the Mercury have lost their past five road games outright against the Sun. Phoenix has gone OVER its past four Wednesday games, and Connecticut has gone OVER six of its past eight home games. Four of the past six meetings have gone OVER, and Phoenix is 3-1 OVER its past four games, and it averages 79.6 points this season. Take the Sun ATS, on the moneyline, and the OVER.

Connecticut just swept a two-game series at Los Angeles, but the Sun still are 4-10 ATS their past 14 games following a win and 2-5 ATS following an ATS win. The Sun are 1-7 ATS their past eight Friday games and 1-4 ATS overall playing with two days rest. Phoenix hasn't played since a loss at Seattle on Saturday and the Mercury are 7-2 ATS with at least three days rest. This could be a preview of a playoff matchup and Phoenix has the motivation after losing all three meetings this season while also looking to get to .500 this season. Connecticut long around wrapped up a playoff spot and it has lost three of its past seven games against the tougher teams in the league, including Las Vegas, Seattle and Indiana. Take the points with the Mercury.

Phoenix had its three-game win streak snapped at Indiana on Friday, but the Mercury will look to bounce back against Connecticut and they are getting big points and with a 10-6 ATS mark this year. The Sun are just 7-10 ATS, including 2-7 ATS their past nine games. The Sun come off a 71-68 loss to New York and they went UNDER for the fourth straight game and they are 8-2 UNDER their past 10 games. Connecticut has not covered the number its past four home contests and it is 1-5 ATS following a loss. Phoenix is 5-1 ATS after a loss and 10-4 UNDER its past 14 games against teams with winning records. The Sun have stayed UNDER eight straight versus Western Conference opponents. Take the Mercury as a Max Play and the UNDER.

It's a long road trip for Connecticut as they head to Phoenix to take on the Mercury. They're on a 2-3 SU, 0-5 ATS run. They slipped by Washington, 94-91, as a double-digit favorite and lost the last game to Atlanta at home, 78-74, as 9.5-point chalk. The offense is 10th from 3-point land (30.8) and 11th from the free-throw line (75.1%). The defense is No. 1 in the league in points given up on an 8-5 run UNDER the total. Phoenix is sixth from long range (33.1%) and very good at home, winning seven of its 10 home contests. Phoenix is on an 8-4 spread run, along with a 9-6 run UNDER the total. Play Phoenix as a Max Play + UNDER the total.