Connecticut Sun vs New York Liberty Point Spread Picks

Connecticut is 8-24 and has the league's worst point differential, so I'm not pretending this is a competitive team on paper. But tonight's number is really about New York, and I like fading the Liberty as a big road favorite on two fronts. New York has won eight of its last ten and is one of the highest-scoring teams in the league at 90.6 points a game, yet their average margin of victory on the season sits at a modest 3.2 points, the profile of a team that piles up points without consistently pulling away from anybody. This is a system I lean on all season, fading high-scoring favorites, and I'm 53-36 with it in 2026 alone. Seven and a half points is a lot to lay on the road against a team that generates offense the way New York does, and scoring a lot of points isn't the same skill as covering a big number. That same thin margin is also why the moneyline carries value at a high price: a team that only wins by field-goal territory on most nights is a team that can be caught on the wrong one, and Connecticut has enough offense to hang around behind a Liberty defense that isn't the reason New York wins. This isn't about picking Connecticut to win outright most nights; it's about grabbing a number the market has overpriced. Take Connecticut on the spread and take a flyer on the moneyline tonight.

Connecticut's 2-10 record is real, but so is the fact that they lost to Chicago by five just recently — this isn't a team that rolls over every night. What is consistent is the offense, which has ranked among the league's worst all season and hasn't found a fix. That's the engine of this combined play. New York should win this game. But the Liberty don't need to pour it on to make their point, and teams laying double digits against struggling opponents tend to hit cruise control once the game is in hand rather than chase a number. The spread is asking New York to dominate start to finish; that's not how they've played — an eight-point win over Indiana two days ago suggests comfortable and controlled is the more likely outcome. On the other end, Connecticut's offense keeps the total down regardless. The Sun score in the 70s, New York manages the clock, and the combined total never climbs. Connecticut covers, and the UNDER plays out — play it both ways tonight. Take the Sun and the UNDER.

Connecticut enters its final season before moving to Houston in 2027 with no aspirations of winning a championship, but the Sun have plenty of young talent to keep things competitive. Leila Lacan, a point guard, debuted for the Sun in the second half of the 2025 season and averaged 10.4 points, 3.7 assists, and 2.4 rebounds in 27 minutes per game. Anneesah Morrow made her mark in the preseason, and she has proven to be a solid rebounder despite being just 6-foot-1. The Sun has three other former first-round picks, Saniya Rivers, Aaliyah Edwards, and Diamond Miller. Of course, Connecticut also now has nine-time All-Star Brittney Griner, who comes over from Atlanta. New York has an aging team and is already dealing with a key injury as star guard Sabrina Ionescu will miss the start of the season (ankle). The Liberty finished 2025 going UNDER 10 of its last 11 games. The past five meetings have stayed UNDER. Take the points with the Sun and the UNDER. Let's also take a small flyer on the big opening night upset with the Sun. 

New York is in revenge mode after getting embarrassed by Connecticut in the last game, 78-62. The offense is second in scoring (86.9 ppg), fourth in field goal shooting (45%), second from long range, and No. 1 from the free-throw line (83.6%), while the defense is third in shooting allowed (42%). They're on a 5-3-1 ATS run. Connecticut has the worst offense in the league, is second-to-last in shooting (40.4%), and last in 3-point shooting (30.5%). The defense is last in shooting allowed. Connecticut pulled a surprise three games ago, upsetting Golden State, 95-64, but then lost the next game at home to Seattle, 101-85. Play New York.