Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx Point Spread Picks

Connecticut just went into Minneapolis and beat this Minnesota team outright, and the rematch comes to Mohegan Sun with the number dropping accordingly. Brittney Griner set a season high with 29 points and 10 rebounds in Monday's win, and Kennedy Burke came off the bench to hit back-breaking threes down the stretch, the kind of complementary scoring the Sun have lacked for stretches of this rebuild. Minnesota still doesn't have Napheesa Collier, who has yet to make her season debut after ankle surgery and is on track to save that moment for the Lynx's upcoming homestand rather than a business trip to Connecticut. That means Minnesota is once again leaning on Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams to create everything, the same formula the Sun just solved on the road. Minnesota's talent gap is real over a full season, but this is the back end of a home-and-home against a team that just delivered the upset, on the road, without its best player. The number reflects a market still catching up to what actually happened Monday night. Back the Sun with the points tonight. 

Minnesota is still shaking off a 99-86 loss at Barclays on Friday, a game in which New York's precision showed the Lynx aren't unbeatable even at 15-5. We had the Liberty in that one and cashed. Now Minnesota comes home to face the worst record in the league, and the number reflects the gap between these two teams, but it overshoots what Minnesota actually does most nights. The Lynx are winning by right around ten points a game this season, the best scoring margin in the WNBA, and tonight's line asks for nearly six more points than that just to cover. Connecticut is 1-8 on the road, but this group has still found the free-throw line and the paint enough in recent underdog spots to keep some of these gaps honest, and the money on this game is leaning the same direction I am, even with the ticket count elsewhere. A number this large on a team playing at its own season-best margin is the kind of gap that invites a letdown or a slow start, and I like the Sun to be standing at that number when it matters. Take the Sun as my WNBA Game of the Week.

Connecticut is getting a ton of points in this matchup even though the Sun have covered four of their past five against teams with winning records. The Sun are 5-2 ATS their past seven meetings at Minnesota, including a 76-70 loss as a 16-point underdog on May 23. The Lynx were held to 39 percent shooting, but Napheesa Collier was the difference as she poured in 33 points for the Lynx. This is a tough scheduling spot for the Lynx, who had to go overtime on the road to defeat Atlanta on Friday night. It also is a lookahead game with Indiana on deck. That's a lot to ask for Minnesota to cover such a big number. Grab the big points with the Sun.

Combine the Lynx (-1350) and the Storm (-240) into a 2-team parlay at -192 odds.