Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx

Connecticut trailed in Game 4 by seven points at halftime before surging ahead with a 25-13 rally in the third quarter, winning 92-82. The Sun shot 54 percent overall and went 8-for-15 on 3-point tries and the Lynx were led by Napheesa Collier's 29 points and only two other Lynx scorers were in double figures. Now the series shifts to Minnesota where the first two games of the series were lower-scoring affairs, and where the Lynx seem to play better defense. The Lynx are 19-5 straight up at home this season and 14-6-1 ATS their past 21 games overall. Connecticut is 3-8 ATS playing with one day of rest and 2-6 ATS its past eight against teams with winning records. Minnesota is a small favorite in Game 5. I'm backing Minnesota on the moneyline.

Connecticut faces elimination after a 90-81 loss in Game 3 even though all five Sun starters scored in double figures. However, the Sun will need to play better defensively as Minnesota shot 57 percent compared to 41 percent for the Sun, who also missed 17 of 20 3-point tries, including Marina Mabrey's 1-for-11 from long range. Connecticut still has won 16 of its past 23 home games and 13 of the past 18 meetings. The Sun have gone UNDER nine of their past 13 games and four of their past six. The Lynx are 11-3 UNDER with one day of rest and the Sun have stayed UNDER eight of nine games in that situation. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS its past six Sunday games and 6-2 UNDER its past eight on Sundays. Connecticut is 18-7-1 UNDER against Western Conference opponents. Take the Sun and the UNDER.

Minnesota evened the series at 1-1 with a 77-70 win over Connecticut on Tuesday night even though Napheesa Collier was held to nine points on 3-for-14 shooting. The Sun are 13-6 ATS their past 19 games following a loss and 3-1-1 ATS their past five games playing on two days rest. The first two games have gone UNDER and Connecticut is 9-2-1 UNDER its past 12 games and 11-3-1 UNDER playing with two days rest. The Lynx have stayed UNDER five of seven after an ATS win. The Sun are back home where they are 16-6 straight up this season and they are just a slight favorite in this game. Connecticut shot only 36 percent in Game 2 and still kept it reasonably close and we can expect the Sun to have a better field goal percentage in Game 3. Take the Sun on the moneyline and the UNDER.

Connecticut has won four in a row and seven of nine after defeating Minnesota 73-70 on the road in Game 1 on Sunday night. The Sun have covered five of their past six road contests and the Lynx are 0-5-1 ATS following a loss. Connecticut is 4-0 ATS its past four meetings at Minnesota and 18-7-1 UNDER after a win. Also, the Sun are 7-1 UNDER with one day of rest, 4-0-1 UNDER its past five road games and 8-2-1 UNDER its past 11 games overall. The Lynx are 11-4 UNDER their past 15 home games and 10-3 UNDER playing with one day of rest. Marina Mabrey scored 20 points and Alyssa Thomas added 17 points with 10 rebounds and nine assists in Connecticut's Game 1 victory. The league's top defense held the Lynx to 41.5 percent shooting and just five of 20 on 3-pointers. Minnesota scored only eight points in the fourth quarter. Take the Sun and the UNDER.

Connecticut is almost certain to be the No. 3 seed in the playoffs while Minnesota still has an outside chance of catching New York for the best record in the league. The Lynx are in double revenge after losing two close games to the Sun this season, including one in overtime. Minnesota has won six in a row and it has covered the number three straight, including Sunday's 88-79 victory over the Liberty. The Lynx are 5-2 UNDER their past seven games and they have allowed only 70.0 points their past four games. The Sun are 2-8 ATS their past 10 home games and 2-6 ATS overall their past eight playing with one day of rest. The Lynx are 10-2 ATS following a win and they have covered five straight against teams with winning records. Connecticut is 16-5-1 UNDER versus the Western Conference and 6-0 UNDER overall its past six games playing with one day of rest. Take the Lynx and the UNDER.