Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx

Connecticut is getting a ton of points in this matchup even though the Sun have covered four of their past five against teams with winning records. The Sun are 5-2 ATS their past seven meetings at Minnesota, including a 76-70 loss as a 16-point underdog on May 23. The Lynx were held to 39 percent shooting, but Napheesa Collier was the difference as she poured in 33 points for the Lynx. This is a tough scheduling spot for the Lynx, who had to go overtime on the road to defeat Atlanta on Friday night. It also is a lookahead game with Indiana on deck. That's a lot to ask for Minnesota to cover such a big number. Grab the big points with the Sun.

Combine the Lynx (-1350) and the Storm (-240) into a 2-team parlay at -192 odds.

Connecticut trailed in Game 4 by seven points at halftime before surging ahead with a 25-13 rally in the third quarter, winning 92-82. The Sun shot 54 percent overall and went 8-for-15 on 3-point tries and the Lynx were led by Napheesa Collier's 29 points and only two other Lynx scorers were in double figures. Now the series shifts to Minnesota where the first two games of the series were lower-scoring affairs, and where the Lynx seem to play better defense. The Lynx are 19-5 straight up at home this season and 14-6-1 ATS their past 21 games overall. Connecticut is 3-8 ATS playing with one day of rest and 2-6 ATS its past eight against teams with winning records. Minnesota is a small favorite in Game 5. I'm backing Minnesota on the moneyline.

Connecticut faces elimination after a 90-81 loss in Game 3 even though all five Sun starters scored in double figures. However, the Sun will need to play better defensively as Minnesota shot 57 percent compared to 41 percent for the Sun, who also missed 17 of 20 3-point tries, including Marina Mabrey's 1-for-11 from long range. Connecticut still has won 16 of its past 23 home games and 13 of the past 18 meetings. The Sun have gone UNDER nine of their past 13 games and four of their past six. The Lynx are 11-3 UNDER with one day of rest and the Sun have stayed UNDER eight of nine games in that situation. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS its past six Sunday games and 6-2 UNDER its past eight on Sundays. Connecticut is 18-7-1 UNDER against Western Conference opponents. Take the Sun and the UNDER.

Minnesota evened the series at 1-1 with a 77-70 win over Connecticut on Tuesday night even though Napheesa Collier was held to nine points on 3-for-14 shooting. The Sun are 13-6 ATS their past 19 games following a loss and 3-1-1 ATS their past five games playing on two days rest. The first two games have gone UNDER and Connecticut is 9-2-1 UNDER its past 12 games and 11-3-1 UNDER playing with two days rest. The Lynx have stayed UNDER five of seven after an ATS win. The Sun are back home where they are 16-6 straight up this season and they are just a slight favorite in this game. Connecticut shot only 36 percent in Game 2 and still kept it reasonably close and we can expect the Sun to have a better field goal percentage in Game 3. Take the Sun on the moneyline and the UNDER.