Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx

A battle of unbeatens and both play tough defense. Minnesota is fifth in the league in points given up and the Lynx defense is allowing 38.5% field goal shooting. Three of the last four meetings between these teams have sailed UNDER. Connecticut is second in the league in points surrendered after being No. 1 last season. WNBA road teams like Minnesota off two straight divisional wins are 72-37 UNDER when the total is 140+ while working on three or more days of rest. Take Minnesota/Connecticut UNDER the total. 

Connecticut has to go to Minnesota for the deciding game of the three-game series and the Sun will need to step up their defense and force turnovers as they did in Game 1 when they outscored the Lynx 30-9 on points off turnovers. DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas combined for 50 points and 13 rebounds in Game 2, but they didn't get enough help from the rest of their teammates, especially on the defensive end. Connecticut still has won eight of the past 10 meetings and covered the spread in six of them, and the Sun are 15-5-1 ATS with two days rest and they have bounced back to cover four straight following a loss. The Lynx are 1-5 ATS with two days rest and 2-5 ATS after an ATS win. Minnesota has lost five of its past eight games. Play the Sun as my WNBA Playoffs Game of the Year. 

Minnesota suffered a terrible shooting night in Game 1 and got blown out 90-60, but the Lynx average 80 points on the season and shoot eight percentage points better than they did on Wednesday. The Lynx are 6-2 ATS playing with at least three days rest and they have had plenty of time to make some adjusments offensively as they fight off elimination in the three-game series. Connecticut is just 3-7 ATS playing with three or more days rest and the Sun figure to cool off after hitting 16 of 30 for 53 percent from 3-point range while Minnesota was just 5-for-25 from beyond the arc. Minnesota has covered three of the five meetings in 2023. Take the points with the Lynx.

Minnesota opens the playoffs on the road and is not a strong defensive team. They allowed the second-most points during the regular season (85 per game) and are 29-16 OVER the total as an underdog. The Lynx defense allows 44.6% field goal shooting, 35.7% on 3-point shooting, and ranks 10th in surrendering assists to opponents. Minnesota is also 24-13 OVER the total versus winning teams and 40-25 OVER against teams that attempt 16 or more treys per game. Connecticut is fourth in the league in points scored (82.7 ppg), third in shooting (44.5%), third in assists, and fourth from 3-point land (36%). Connecticut is 12-5 OVER the total at home against teams that take 16+ treys per game, plus 12-5 OVER at home versus opponents who average 73+ points. Take Minnesota/Connecticut OVER the total.