Connecticut Sun vs Los Angeles Sparks

Connecticut is 3,000 miles from home, and although they won at Los Angeles two days ago, they are still only 3-3 SU/ATS in their past six, losing twice as a favorite. They're also on an 8-14 spread run. The offense is eighth in the 12-team league in scoring, ninth in 3-point shooting (32.3%), and 11th from the charity stripe (75%). Los Angeles plays its fourth home game over the last six contests. They're on a 5-1 ATS run as an underdog of +9.5 or more. Play Los Angeles. 

A 3,000-mile road trip for Connecticut. They've lost the last two games, both at home, to Seattle (71-64) as a favorite and to Las Vegas (72-67). They've lost two of the last three times they've been favored, including an 84-80 loss at Indiana. Connecticut is 10th in defensive rebounding while the offense is eighth in points, eighth in 3-point shooting (32.3%), and 11th from the free-throw line (75.4%). Los Angeles has a big frontcourt behind Dearica Hamby (17.6 ppg, 9.5 rpg), Rickea Jackson (12.5 ppg), and 6-6 Azura Stevens (10.6 ppg 6.5 rpg). They've split their last two home games, including a 94-88 upset of league-leading New York as a +12.5 dog. Play Los Angeles on the moneyline. 

Connecticut cooled off considerably after exploding for 109 points at Dallas, as the Sun then shot only 35 percent and hit just four of 16 3-pointers in an 82-70 loss to Atlanta. Now the Sun are laying too many points against Los Angeles, which is 7-2 ATS its past nine games against teams with winning records. The Sparks have covered the spread five of six road contests and Connecticut is just 1-5 ATS its past six games versus opponents with losing records. The Sun are just 4-9 ATS their past 13 overall, including 1-4 ATS at home. Take the big points with the Sparks as a Max Play. 

Los Angeles has covered three of five. They're an up-and-coming team with several key additions from a year ago. Dearica Hamby (19 ppg, 11.1 rpg) and 6-2 rookie Rickea Jackson (10.2 ppg) have been strong in the low post along with 6-4 Cameron Brink (8.1 ppg, 5.7 rpg), the second overall pick. Guard Lexie Brown (8.6 ppg) is healthy and is joined by newcomer Kia Nurse (9.3 ppg), acquired in a trade with Seattle in January. Los Angeles is 82-48 UNDER the total against teams that outscore their opponents by 6+ points per game and 21-10 UNDER after scoring 70+ points in two straight contests. The team is sixth in the WNBA in rebounding and 67-38 UNDER the total versus teams with winning percentages of 75%+, plus 26-16 UNDER against opponents who attempt 16 or more treys per contest. Connecticut has a long road trip to Las Vegas after this game. They're a huge favorite but are 11th in the 12-team WNBA in 3-point shooting (30%) and 10th from the free-throw line (77%). Connecticut is 6-15 ATS at home after a double-digit victory, including 4-14 ATS after a win by 15+ points. And WNBA double-digit home favorites after covering four or five of their last six are 9-33 ATS when working with two days rest. For my WNBA GOY, take the points with Los Angeles, and play this game UNDER the total.

The posted totals are getting lower for Los Angeles based on recent results, but the Sparks are playing at Connecticut and the Sun have gone OVER 11 of their past 14 home games. They are also 4-1 OVER versus Western Conference opponents, while Connecticut is 6-2 OVER its past eight games playing with at least three days rest. The Sun will come out focused offensively after being embarrassed 89-58 at New York on Friday and their defense has been weak the past four games as the Sun has allowed nearly 48 percent shooting and 53.3 percent the last two games. Two Max Plays: Take the first half OVER, and bet the full game total to go OVER.