Connecticut Sun vs Indiana Fever

Indiana has a losing road record and got routed in Game 1 of this series, 93-69. Connecticut shot 49.3% from the field and 50% from long range along with a 50-36 edge in points in the paint. Defense has been a problem all season for Indiana, ranked 11th in the 12-team league in points given up (87.78 per game) and eighth in shooting allowed. Connecticut is 15-6 straight up at home and No. 1 defensively in points allowed. Connecticut has won four of the five meetings versus Indiana this season, including a perfect 3-0 at home winning by scores of 92-71, 89-72, and 93-69.
Phoenix is eighth in points allowed, ninth in points surrendered, and seventh in field goal shooting allowed. They lost Game 1, 102-95, despite shooting 50%. Minnesota is second defensively in points given up and No. 1 in shooting allowed (41.32%). The Lynx is 17-4 straight-up at home with an offense that is third in shooting, fifth in scoring, fifth in free throws, and No. 1 from 3-point land (38%). Minnesota has won all three home games against Phoenix, 95-71, 73-60, and 102-95. Parlay the Sun (-265) on the moneyline with the Lynx (-450) on the moneyline.

No. 6 seed Indiana has a losing road mark with a weak defense that was 11th in the 12-team league in points surrendered (87.7 points per game). They're also eighth in field goal shooting allowed (44.1%) and last in steals. Indiana has lost four of six and plays its second straight on the road after a 92-91 loss at Washington. They played at Connecticut back in June and lost 89-72 allowing 46.2% shooting from the field and 47.1% from long range. No. 3 seed Connecticut is 14-6 straight up at home. They're outscoring opponents by +6.5 points per game, the second-best differential in the WNBA. Playoffs are about defense and Connecticut is outstanding, No. 1 in points allowed, third in steals (8.2 per game), and fifth in shooting allowed. The Sun won three of four games from Indiana during the regular season, with the wagering value on the home team to win the game. Play Connecticut on the moneyline. 

It's the middle of a three-game trip for Connecticut. They're favored but the offense is eighth in the 12-team league in scoring, seventh in shooting (43.43%), 11th from the free throw line (75.2%), and ninth from 3-point land (31.3%). Connecticut is on a 5-11 spread run. Meanwhile, Indiana is 8-5 SU and 9-4 ATS at home. The backcourt leads the way behind guards Kelsey Mitchell (18.2 ppg) and Caitlin Clark (18 ppg, 8.2 apg) with the team sixth from long range and fifth in assists. Indiana is on a 12-5 spread run, including 8-1 ATS at home. Play Indiana. 

Indiana is working on two days of rest. They're on a 2-1 straight-up run, topping Washington (85-83) along with a 71-70 victory over Chicago as an underdog. Indiana is third in the WNBA in 3-point shooting (33.1%) with the backcourt leading the way behind Kelsey Mitchell (15.2 ppg) and rookie star Caitlin Clark (16.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 6.3 apg). Indiana is 22-12 ATS after scoring 75+ points. Connecticut is working on one day of rest in a let-down spot off its first loss of the season, 82-75, at home to New York. Connecticut's offense is just seventh in scoring, 11th from 3-point land (28.7%), and last from the charity stripe (73.9%). WNBA double-digit home favorites like Connecticut averaging 42+ rebounds are 57-102 ATS in May, June, or July games. Play Indiana ATS as a Max Play and take the Fever on the money line.