Connecticut Sun vs Indiana Fever Point Spread Picks

Connecticut is 11-29 and not sneaking up on anybody, but the version of the Sun that showed up three days ago against Chicago is the one that matters tonight: an 87-81 win that didn't just cover the plus-six-and-a-half I had them at; it ended a two-game slide outright. Indiana is the far better team at 27-14 and returns home off a hot shooting night on the road, 18 for 33 from three in a win at Chicago, the kind of outlier performance that's easy to overreact to heading into the next game. The Fever are also walking back into this one after three straight true road games, exactly the spot where a heavy favorite starts settling for jumpers instead of playing with the force that built the record. None of that makes Connecticut the better team tonight. It makes a number this size, and a price this long, worth attaching a small piece of the ticket to. The Sun need to win outright only about once every fourteen tries at this price to make the flyer worth it, and a team that did exactly that against a quality opponent three days ago is live enough to take that shot. Take Connecticut on the spread and take a flyer on the moneyline tonight.

Connecticut's 7-19 record doesn't match how this team has actually played lately. Over their last ten games, the Sun are a respectable 5-5 and have outscored their opponents on average across that stretch, averaging better than 82 points a night, a sharp turn from the results that piled up earlier this season. Indiana is playing well too, riding a two-game winning streak into Wednesday and looking to make it three in its last outing before the All-Star break, with Caitlin Clark probable and expected on the floor after Kelsey Mitchell dropped 33 in Monday's blowout of New York. Indiana will be missing reserve big Damiris Dantas, a minor loss against a Connecticut frontcourt still anchored by Brittney Griner inside. An eleven-point number is a lot to ask against a team that's been playing .500 ball for a month, and professional money has already found its way to Connecticut's side of this spread. Connecticut is the play. 

Connecticut has covered all three meetings this season, including one outright win on May 30. The Sun come off a 71-62 victory over Chicago on Wednesday when Leila Lacan scored a team-leading 17 points and Tina Charles added 15 points for the Sun. Indiana has lost four of five while still playing without injured Caitlin Clark. The Fever have gone OVER four of five against Eastern Conference opponents, including its 88-84 loss to Washington, which went OVER by nine points on Friday. Connecticut has won 15 of its past 16 home games against the Fever anf 14 of 17 meetings overall. The OVER is 4-1 in the Fever's past five games versus Eastern Conference teams. Take the Sun on the moneyline and the OVER.

Connecticut is getting a ton of points at home even though these teams have split two meetings this season. The Sun have covered three in a row and seven of 10. They are 4-2 ATS their past six home games and 4-0-1 ATS at home against the Fever. Connecticut has won 14 of the past 16 meetings overall although, of course, it has had better teams the last few years. Still, Indiana has split its past four games losing to Los Angeles and Golden State prior to wins against Atlanta and Dallas. The Sun have gone OVER four of six overall and nine of 12 home games dating to last season. The Sun are 5-1 ATS their past six games versus opponents with winning records and 7-1 OVER against winning teams. Connecticut is 4-1 OVER following a straight-up loss. Take the points with the Sun, and bet this game OVER.