Connecticut Sun vs Golden State Valkyries Point Spread Picks

Golden State turned in one of its best defensive performances of the season Monday, holding Minnesota, one of the league's most explosive offenses, to a season-low 66 points, and I had the Valkyries with the points and the UNDER that night, both of which cashed comfortably in an 80-66 win. That version of Golden State, fresh off a day of rest, is not walking into Connecticut tonight in the same shape as the Sun. This is the road half of a back-to-back for the Valkyries, but more importantly, it is the second night in a row for Connecticut, who beat Chicago 87-81 at home Tuesday and turn right back around on zero days of rest against a team that just held one of the league's top offenses to its worst output of the year. Fatigue shows up as a discipline problem before it shows up as a fitness problem: closeouts get late, rotations get lazy, and a Connecticut defense that already sits just middle of the pack league-wide has even less margin to survive tired legs against a Golden State attack that ranks in the league's upper half in offensive efficiency and likes to push pace. Connecticut is the league's lowest-scoring team this season, but it hung 87 on Chicago less than 24 hours before tip-off, proof this number is more mobile than the season average suggests once the game turns into a track meet. Both teams are healthy, so this comes down to legs, not injuries, and one side is gassed while the other is fresh enough to push the pace from the opening minute. Take the OVER as my WNBA Game of the Month.

We took Connecticut plus the points against Minnesota on Monday, and it cashed easily, the Sun defense holding a Lynx attack in check even in a loss. That is the team that shows up tonight: physical and competitive, not the pushover the record suggests. Golden State arrives on a five-game win streak and sits atop the WNBA in scoring defense, a profile that makes a line like this look automatic. But automatic and profitable are not the same thing. The Valkyries have been grinding out low-possession wins rather than blowing teams out, including one Monday when not a single starter reached double figures. Connecticut has shown it can hang in a slow, physical game, and Brittney Griner's interior scoring gives the Sun a way to punish a defense that leans on length over size on the interior. At this price, close to 3-to-1, Connecticut does not need to win outright most nights, just often enough to beat what the market prices in, and that number sits a shade above one time in four. The market has priced this win as close to a sure thing, but sure things still have to clear the number to pay. Take a flyer on the Sun tonight.

Connecticut is on a 3-1 ATS run, including an 80-78 win at Seattle two games ago as an underdog, and a cover against Las Vegas as a +15.5 dog. Connecticut is on a 12-9 ATS run, including 10-8 ATS as a double-digit dog. Golden State is a huge favorite but ranks 11th in the 15-team league in scoring, last in field-goal shooting (39.2%), and 10th from the free-throw line (76.9%). They haven't been double-digit chalk since September, failing to cover in an 84-80 win at home over Dallas. Play Connecticut. 

Connecticut crushed the Valkyries 95-64 on July 27 while shooting 53 percent overall and 41 percent from 3-point range. Golden State has lost two of its past three games, although it did get a 72-59 win over Los Angeles on Saturday. The Sun are on an 8-4 ATS run and they were tied 45-45 at the half against Las Vegas on Sunday, but once again wore down after intermission and lost 94-86, although they covered the 11.5-point spread. They will go all out to salvage a game from this road trip, especially against a team they handled so easily in the last meeting. Tina Charles only had eight points against the Aces, which is way below her average of 15.9 points per game. Take the Sun ATS and on the moneyline.

Golden State comes off an 86-76 win at home over Dallas. Their defense hasn't been as sharp away from home. In their last seven road games, they've allowed 89, 80, 82, 90, and 104 points in five of them. Connecticut has the worst defense in the league in field goal shooting allowed (46.6%) and in points surrendered (88.5 per game). Connecticut is off a 101-86 loss at home to Los Angeles, allowing 52.4% shooting. They're 7-4 OVER the total at home this season. Take Golden State/Connecticut OVER the total.