Connecticut Sun vs Golden State Valkyries Point Spread Picks

We took Connecticut plus the points against Minnesota on Monday, and it cashed easily, the Sun defense holding a Lynx attack in check even in a loss. That is the team that shows up tonight: physical and competitive, not the pushover the record suggests. Golden State arrives on a five-game win streak and sits atop the WNBA in scoring defense, a profile that makes a line like this look automatic. But automatic and profitable are not the same thing. The Valkyries have been grinding out low-possession wins rather than blowing teams out, including one Monday when not a single starter reached double figures. Connecticut has shown it can hang in a slow, physical game, and Brittney Griner's interior scoring gives the Sun a way to punish a defense that leans on length over size on the interior. At this price, close to 3-to-1, Connecticut does not need to win outright most nights, just often enough to beat what the market prices in, and that number sits a shade above one time in four. The market has priced this win as close to a sure thing, but sure things still have to clear the number to pay. Take a flyer on the Sun tonight.

Connecticut is on a 3-1 ATS run, including an 80-78 win at Seattle two games ago as an underdog, and a cover against Las Vegas as a +15.5 dog. Connecticut is on a 12-9 ATS run, including 10-8 ATS as a double-digit dog. Golden State is a huge favorite but ranks 11th in the 15-team league in scoring, last in field-goal shooting (39.2%), and 10th from the free-throw line (76.9%). They haven't been double-digit chalk since September, failing to cover in an 84-80 win at home over Dallas. Play Connecticut. 

Connecticut crushed the Valkyries 95-64 on July 27 while shooting 53 percent overall and 41 percent from 3-point range. Golden State has lost two of its past three games, although it did get a 72-59 win over Los Angeles on Saturday. The Sun are on an 8-4 ATS run and they were tied 45-45 at the half against Las Vegas on Sunday, but once again wore down after intermission and lost 94-86, although they covered the 11.5-point spread. They will go all out to salvage a game from this road trip, especially against a team they handled so easily in the last meeting. Tina Charles only had eight points against the Aces, which is way below her average of 15.9 points per game. Take the Sun ATS and on the moneyline.

Golden State comes off an 86-76 win at home over Dallas. Their defense hasn't been as sharp away from home. In their last seven road games, they've allowed 89, 80, 82, 90, and 104 points in five of them. Connecticut has the worst defense in the league in field goal shooting allowed (46.6%) and in points surrendered (88.5 per game). Connecticut is off a 101-86 loss at home to Los Angeles, allowing 52.4% shooting. They're 7-4 OVER the total at home this season. Take Golden State/Connecticut OVER the total.

Connecticut has covered its past three games and now the Sun have to get over the hump and start winning outright. They came close on Friday losing 86-83 to Dallas with Tina Charles scoring a team-leading 26 points and the Sun held the Wings to 4-for-16 from 3-point range. They'll catch Golden State in a letdown spot after the Valkyries scored a huge win over Indiana on Thursday outscoring the Fever 33-18 in the fourth quarter. Caitlin Clark was held to 3-for-14 shooting and 11 points. Golden State had lost its previous game to lowly Dallas 80-71 even though the Wings shot just 39 percent. This is a vulnerable spot in the schedule for the Valkyries, who have New York on deck. Take the Sun ATS and to pull the upset on the moneyline.