Connecticut Sun vs Dallas Wings Point Spread Picks

Connecticut is a bad team, sitting near the bottom of the league standings and dropping its last two, and I'm not going to dress that up. But tonight isn't about whether the Sun are good, it's about whether Dallas deserves to be laying a number this big as a favorite. The Wings are riding a three-game winning streak built almost entirely on their offense, one of the more prolific scoring attacks in the league right now, while their own defense has been middling at best, nowhere near strong enough to justify laying a number this size. That profile, a high-scoring team getting bet up as a big favorite off a hot streak, is exactly the kind of number that's been live for the underdog covering all year. Connecticut doesn't need to play well to make this a game, it just needs Dallas's offense to have one quiet stretch, and a spread this wide gives it plenty of room to still cash even if the final score isn't particularly close. Take Connecticut with the points tonight.

Dallas has spent the last week finding new ways to lose games it should control. A stunning home loss to Atlanta on Wednesday was followed by an even tougher one Friday in Washington, blowing a tie with two and a half minutes left and falling 81-75 despite Paige Bueckers scoring 17 of her 23 points in a furious second-half push. Three of the Wings' last four losses have come by a combined eight points, every one decided in the final minutes. We banked the total staying south of the number when Dallas hosted Washington on Friday. Connecticut closes a six-game road trip tonight still without Brittney Griner for a fourth straight game, and that shorthanded frontcourt has nobody left to protect the rim. Dallas gets clean, easy looks inside behind Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale, which pushes this one toward a track meet regardless of who wins. But this Dallas team hasn't shown it can put a game away lately, and Connecticut is 3-7 over its last 10, not the disaster its record suggests. These two split 169 points in their first meeting back on July 2, an 86-83 Dallas win that finished just under where tonight's number sits. Take Connecticut with the points as my WNBA Game of the Week tonight, and take the OVER right alongside it.

Paige Bueckers still put up 25 points Sunday, but Dallas walked out of Minneapolis with a loss anyway, falling 85-77 in a game that showed even a hot rookie duo can't cover for a shaky defensive night. That loss travels with the Wings into Hartford, where Connecticut has finally started playing like a team that belongs on the floor. The Sun snapped a long home losing streak two weeks ago with a 29-point win over Chicago, and Brittney Griner has been a real anchor inside since, setting the league's all-time blocks record in that same game. Nine and a half points is a number built for a Dallas team that's solid overall but has had its road lapses, not for a Connecticut club that's found some life at home even while the overall record stays ugly. Money has quietly been finding its way to the Sun's side of this one, too. Aneesah Morrow keeps grinding out double-doubles inside, and that kind of physical presence travels well against a Wings frontcourt that has had its own rebounding issues. I like the Sun to cover this number. Side with Connecticut tonight. 

A pair of struggling defensive teams clash in this battle, and with both teams already eliminated from postseason contention, I don't expect either one to be digging in its heels. Connecticut ranks 10th in the 13-team WNBA in points surrendered (85.2 per game), and is last in shooting allowed (46.3%) and defensive rebounds. The offense is fifth from the charity stripe. They've won four of six with the offense averaging 80.6 points. Dallas is 12th in points given up (87.4 per game) and 11th in field goal shooting allowed (45.%), on a 9-4 run OVER the total at home. These teams have met twice this season, with the finals ending in 86-83 and 109-87, sailing well OVER the total. Take Connecticut/Dallas to go OVER.

The two last-place teams in their respective conferences face off in this matchup, and Connecticut will look to avenge a loss to the Wings in their first meeting on May 27. Dallas does come off an 80-71 win over Golden State on Tuesday, but the Wings are 1-4 ATS in their past five games following an ATS win. The Sun are getting points at home against a 2-11 team, and they have covered their past two games against Indiana and Phoenix. Dallas is 3-5 against the spread (ATS) in its past eight games, and it is 3-6 ATS in the past nine meetings. Dallas shot 56 percent overall and hit 10 of 20 3-point tries in its prior win against the Sun, and it doesn't figure to come close to that percentage in the rematch. Take the Sun ATS and on the moneyline.