Chicago Sky vs Phoenix Mercury

Chicago has an opportunity to get its first win of the season as it travels to face Phoenix, which is just 6-11-1 ATS overall and 3-7 ATS its past 10 home games dating to last year. The Mercury beat Washington 68-62 on Sunday, but they shot just 33 percent and missed 23 of 34 3-point tries in one of the uglier games of the young season. They took advantage of equally bad shooting by the Mystics, who went 19-for-54 from the field and scored only 22 points in the first half. Angel Reese scored 13 points and grabbed 12 rebounds against Los Angeles on Sunday when the Sky again was plagued by too many turnovers. If they can correct that problem they can capture a win and a cover tonight. Take the Sky ATS, and grab a half-unit on the moneyline.

Nine of the past 10 meetings have stayed UNDER, including both this season by an average of 13 points. Phoenix has scored only 67.5 points per game its past two against Seattle and Connecticut. Chicago has gone UNDER seven of nine after losing 83-66 to Minnesota on Friday and it went UNDER by 8.5 points. The Sky scored only 58 points its previous game against Washington and it went UNDER by 15 points. The Mercury are 19-8-1 UNDER their past 28 Sunday games and the Sky are 8-2 UNDER their past 10 home games. Chicago has stayed UNDER five of six against teams with losing records and six of seven overall versus the Western Conference. Take the UNDER.

Chicago is ranked 10th in the 12-team WNBA in scoring and shooting (42.31%), with the defense sixth in points allowed. That defense keeps them competitive, especially on the road where they have a winning record. Chicago has won its last two road games, at Los Angeles yesterday (90-86) and at Las Vegas (93-85) as a +13.5 underdog. They're on a 7-6 SU/ATS run, including a win at Seattle (88-84) as a +10 dog. Phoenix comes home after playing two straight on the road. They're in the role of favorite despite getting outscored on the season. Stars Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner are off a bad game at Indiana dealing with consecutive road contests along with the fatigue of the Paris Games. Phoenix has lost seven of its last nine against Chicago and has failed to cover four of the last six meetings. Play Chicago + UNDER the total. 

Chicago has dropped three-straight games, and their road woes have left them with just one win since early June. Their playoff chances have melted away. Phoenix has been in a season-long struggle at 5-15, but three of those five wins are in their past seven games. The Mercury has also become a tough opponent on their home hardwood where they are 3-1 in their last four, and in their last game at home, they took down a 15-6 Connecticut team. I think Phoenix is showing signs of improvement after a brutally bad start, and have been a pest at home for opponents later in the season. Make the play on Phoenix.