Chicago Sky vs Phoenix Mercury Point Spread Picks

Phoenix has quietly won three in a row, and the defense has kept pace with the winning streak, holding opponents to an average of 85.3 PPG during that stretch, even as the offense remains modest by design. Chicago is dealing with more than a rough patch. Rickea Jackson is done for the season, DiJonai Carrington is out, and a Sky team already near the bottom of the league in scoring defense is trying to do it all with a thinned rotation. Kahleah Copper has been the one player carrying Phoenix's offense, scoring twenty or more in six of her last seven games, and against a shorthanded Chicago backcourt, she's a matchup problem all night. The last meeting between these two went the same way: a Phoenix win in single digits that never turned into a track meet. This is the same story that has played out in eight straight meetings between these two: Phoenix controls the tempo, and Chicago's offense can't generate enough clean looks to keep pace or push the total where the market has it. The shorthanded roster is the through-line on both bets. Take Phoenix on the spread (GOM), and take the UNDER tonight. 

Both teams are in dire need of a win, but Chicago has the home court, and the Mercury are playing their fifth consecutive road game in 10 days. Phoenix illustrated its fatigue in a 95-72 blowout defeat against Atlanta on Friday. The Mercury only shot 39 percent and missed 12 of 16 from 3-point distance. They lost a step defensively, too, as the Dream shot 52 percent and hit 13 of 31 3-pointers. The past three meetings have gone OVER, and Phoenix has lost 10 of 14 at Chicago. The Sky have gone OVER five of their past eight games. Chicago allows 87.2 points per game and Phoenix allows 81.4 points per game. Look for Chicago to use its scheduling advantage for an outright win plus the OVER.

Chicago covered the first meeting, losing 94-89 as a 7.5-point underdog, and now the Sky have an opportunity to avenge that loss while getting double digits on their home court. The Sky blew a 16-point third-quarter lead in that game, and turnovers were the culprit, as it has been all season. However, Chicago has shown some life lately, winning three of its last seven games after starting the 2025 season 0-4. Angel Reese is averaging 11.0 points and 11.7 rebounds, and the Sky features a balanced offense with four scorers between 10.6 and 12.6 points per game. Phoenix is playing its third game in four days, and it will be the Mercury's fourth consecutive road game. Chicago is 9-4 ATS and 10-3 straight up in its past 13 home games against Phoenix. Take the Sky ATS and on the moneyline.