Chicago Sky vs Las Vegas Aces Point Spread Picks

We were in Chicago at a plus number on Sunday, and Las Vegas still found a way, escaping with a 107-99 win that ate up every bit of a 7.5-point cushion. Kamilla Cardoso answered that loss with a season-high 24 points and eight rebounds, part of a stretch where she's become the first center in WNBA history to put up back-to-back 20-plus point games shooting at least 80 percent. Vegas gets the rematch at home tonight, and the market has stretched the number to 9.5, nearly two points wider than the spread the Aces barely survived four days ago. I don't need Chicago to win this one. The Aces have actually scored less at home this season (89.1 a night) than on the road (91.8), even against a Sky team that's dropped five straight true road games. That gap between the home number and the road number is the case for grabbing the extra points on a line that's moved further than the last result justifies. Back the Sky with the number tonight.

Chicago just put together the best two-game run of its season, hanging 101 and then 124 points on Portland while shooting a franchise record in the second one. Kamilla Cardoso went 13-for-13 for 30, and Courtney Vandersloot returned from a year out and changed how the whole offense moved. The Sky are still a 6-12 team, and Las Vegas is the better club by a comfortable margin. None of that is in dispute. The price is. The Aces give up points even in their wins, and they arrive on the road nursing a handful of day-to-day injuries to the rotation. Chicago at home is a different offense than the one that lost six straight, and Cardoso is a problem inside for anyone. At +257, this isn't a claim that the Sky are the better team. It's a number treating them as an afterthought when they're a live home dog playing their best ball of the year. The sharp money has already moved to Chicago. You only need the Sky to win a shade under three times in ten. Side with Chicago.

Las Vegas ranks eighth in the 13-team league defensively in points given up (81.9 per game) and seventh in shooting allowed. But the offense is clicking, winning 10 in a row after a 91-81 victory at Washington, hitting 10 of 20 from 3-point range. A'ja Wilson had 36 points and 13 rebounds for her 19th double-double of the year. Las Vegas is on a 9-5 run OVER the total. Chicago is 11th in points surrendered (86.4 per game) and 10th in shooting allowed (45%). Chicago is on a 14-10-1 run OVER the total. Take Las Vegas/Chicago OVER the total.