Chicago Sky vs Golden State Valkyries Point Spread Picks

Golden State ran Chicago off the floor by twenty when these two met in San Francisco on August 12, but the Valkyries arrive in Chicago tonight on the back end of a longer road trip, having just lost to Minnesota 77-66 on Wednesday. That is a different look than the team that torched the Sky three weeks ago. Chicago has won its last two games, holding off Seattle and then beating New York behind Natasha Cloud, who dropped 35 points and 9 rebounds in that win. The pace here matters. Chicago plays the fastest tempo in the league, while Golden State ranks dead last in pace among all 15 teams, a club built around slowing games down and grinding out possessions. Forcing the Valkyries to run is exactly the kind of night that keeps a home underdog inside the number even without stealing the outright win. Golden State still owns the best defense in the league by rating, but Chicago is 9-9 at home compared to 5-13 on the road, and that split shows up against a Valkyries team that is 10-5 away from San Francisco. Chicago is the right side on the spread at home tonight, and I do not expect a repeat of the blowout from three weeks ago.

Golden State led by 17 points entering the fourth quarter against a Los Angeles Sparks team well under .500 Sunday, and still saw that lead shrink to six by the final horn as the Sparks closed the game on a run. That's the same profile that could show up again tonight. The Valkyries have the record, 15-7 and 10-3 at home, but the offense behind it is one of the least efficient in the league: 41 percent shooting from the field, one of the worst marks in the WNBA, and the lowest scoring average among the six teams on tonight's board. Chicago isn't a good team at 6-14, but it competes on the glass, tied for third in the league in rebounding, and Kamilla Cardoso is putting up a real season at 14.6 points and 8.6 rebounds a night. A team that can't consistently shoot well and just let a 17-point lead shrink to six against a team this far under .500 isn't the team that should be favored by this much. Golden State wins more often than not here, but this number is bigger than what this team has actually shown on the floor. I don't expect Golden State to pull away. Take Chicago with the points. 

Chicago went OVER by 17.5 points in its 98-83 win over Portland on Saturday. Six players scored in double figures, led by Kamilla Cardoso with 22 points. Golden State has gone OVER in both of its games by an average of 14 points, as the Valkyries have scored 90-plus points in each. They shot 49 percent from the field against Phoenix while hitting 13 3-pointers. Golden State had major contributions from several players and featured balanced scoring against the Mercury. Janelle Salaun led with 21 points, and Gabby Williams and Kayla Thornton added 19 apiece. The last meeting in 2025 went OVER as Golden State won 90-59. The Sky obviously have more firepower this season as they showed against Portland. Take the OVER. 

Chicago will look to get its first win in a double-revenge situation against Golden State, which won the last meeting 73-66 on Aug. 1. The Sky covered the first meeting, losing 83-78 as an 8.5-point underdog on June 27. The Valkyries come off an 88-83 victory at Washington on Wednesday, and it went OVER by 20 points. In their previous road game, the Valkyries lost by 24 points at Las Vegas. The Sky are still playing without injured Angel Reese, but they are hoping to snap a three-game skid now that they're back home after two road losses to Indiana and Connecticut. The Golden State is just 7-10 straight up on the road. The Valkyries score 77.9 points per game overall. Take the Sky on the moneyline and the OVER.

The first meeting went OVER as Golden State won 83-78. Both teams shot less than 40 percent, and it still went OVER as the teams combined to make 24 3-pointers. Chicago has gone OVER five of seven, including a 103-86 loss to Washington on Tuesday, which went OVER by 31 points. Chicago is on a 10-5 OVER run, and it has allowed 91 points or more in each of its past four games. The Sky score 77.1 points per game and allow 87.7. They have been weak defensively recently as the Wizards shot 51 percent from the field and hit 10 of 24 2-point tries. Washington put up 55 points in the first half. Take the OVER.