Atlanta Dream vs Toronto Tempo Point Spread Picks

Toronto is buried in an eight-game losing streak, the longest run of the franchise's debut season, and Atlanta has already handled this series three times by a wide margin. What's kept Toronto's losses from getting truly ugly is the same thing that's kept Atlanta from putting teams away: neither club can stop anybody right now. The Tempo have allowed at least 92 points in seven straight games, a number that's held even as the losses have piled up, and Atlanta just dropped two of three following a five-game winning streak, including Friday's 79-74 loss to Washington, because complete defensive efforts have been the season-long issue for a team that's otherwise comfortably in the postseason picture. Two offenses that can score paired with two defenses that can't stop anyone is why my model likes the total tonight. That same porous Toronto defense is exactly why the number stays inflated even in a loss: these games have stayed on the scoreboard, not in the mud, and a team that keeps finding buckets late is a team that keeps games within striking distance of a generous number. Allisha Gray and Jordin Canada will get theirs for Atlanta, but Toronto's offense has shown it can keep pace possession for possession even while losing outright. We're on Toronto with the points tonight, and the OVER anchors this ticket.

We were on Toronto plus the points last Sunday against a shorthanded Liberty team, and the Tempo delivered outright, surviving a scare after blowing a 20-point lead to win by two. Tonight's assignment looks tougher on paper. Atlanta arrives off a 101-92 win over the Sparks that pushed the Dream to 14-10, with Angel Reese logging her fourth straight double-double and hunting the offensive glass, exactly where Toronto has struggled all season. That's the honest knock against this side, and I'm not going to pretend it isn't real. But the Atlanta on the floor tonight isn't the one that ran Toronto off the court back in June. Over their last 10 games, the Dream's defense has loosened to nearly 88 points allowed per night, and their three-point shooting has fallen off by 6 points from their season rate. Toronto is still without Brittney Sykes and Kiki Rice, and the four-of-five skid it's carrying is real, including a rough loss in Washington on Tuesday. Even accounting for that, this line is asking a cooling Atlanta offense to pull away by a wide margin on the road, and informed money is building on Toronto tonight, even with the crowd piling onto the favorite. Take Toronto with the points tonight.

Atlanta's back-to-back wins over Indiana have pushed this total to a number that requires both offenses to stay hot. What the Dream's recent scoring output doesn't account for is how it was built: Indiana turned the ball over 19 times in Saturday's game, turning Atlanta's defense into a fast-break engine that inflated the final score well past what any half-court game would produce. Toronto plays more disciplined ball. The Tempo's offense is volatile — Marina Mabrey went 9 of 12 from three in Thursday's win at Connecticut, a shooting performance that isn't repeatable night to night — and against Atlanta's length and defensive rotation featuring Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray, the Tempo are unlikely to approach 90. Atlanta will score, but doesn't replicate a 46-percent three-point clip without the same turnover windfall. Strip out last week's variance, and both offenses have realistic ceilings below the posted total. Back the UNDER tonight.

Marina Mabrey put up 27 points on 60 percent shooting in last night's 86-85 loss to Washington, and Toronto still made it a fight until the final seconds. The Tempo have not been blown out at home — both of their recent home losses came by one point — and they carry enough offensive punch to keep pace against good competition. Atlanta is the more accomplished team, but the Dream are not rolling into this spot clean. They shot 55 percent from the free throw line last Friday against New York, 15 makes on 27 attempts, and still lost by 14 at home. Road favorites laying seven-plus need to be clicking in every phase, and with Atlanta's conversion problems at the stripe unresolved and Toronto's offense capable of hanging around until the final possession, this number is inflated. Toronto is the side.