Atlanta Dream vs Phoenix Mercury

Phoenix has won two of the three meetings this season and although the Mercury have lost three in row, it should be noted that all three were against the league's top teams. Now they get to play Atlanta again and the Mercury are 9-4-1 ATS against teams with losing records. Phoenix has covered the spread five of the past seven meetings at home. The Dream are playing their fourth game in six days and the first three were on the road. Atlanta is 11-21 on the season and just two games from last place in the Eastern Conference. The Dream have lost eight of their past nine road games outright. Take the Mercury on the moneyline — Max Play. 

The Phoenix defense is fifth in the league allowing 42.98% shooting by opponents. These teams met in the last game and Phoenix lost, 72-63, sailing UNDER by 31 points. Atlanta has the worst offense in the WNBA averaging 75.6 points and in shooting (41.1%). They're also 10th in 3-point shooting (30.4%). They focus on defense, ranked fifth in points given up and fourth in shooting allowed (42.28%). Atlanta is on a 6-2 run UNDER and this total is too high. Take Phoenix/Atlanta UNDER the total as Max Play. 

Atlanta has won two in a row for the first time since May 31 and the Dream are 8-2-1 ATS their past 11 games. They come off an impressive 82-70 victory over Connecticut on Sunday, with Tina Charles scoring a team-leading 22 points. The Sun were held to 35 percent shooting and the game stayed UNDER. Atlanta has gone UNDER five of its past seven games. Phoenix has split its past six games and it went UNDER by 12.5 points while defeating Chicago 86-68. The Mercury are 8-3 UNDER versus teams with losing records and the Dream are 9-2 UNDER following an ATS win, including 6-0 UNDER after a straight-up win. Atlanta is 7-0-1 ATS its past eight games against opponents with winning records and 4-0-1 against the Western Conference. It's a near pick 'em game. Take the Dream on the moneyline and the UNDER.

Atlanta had the offense clicking in the opener, a 92-81 victory at Los Angeles that sailed OVER by double-digits. They made the playoffs last season with an offense that was fifth in scoring (82.5 ppg). The backcourt pushes the tempo behind Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard, the two leading scorers from 2023. The offense is upgraded with newcomer 6-4 center Tina Charles, who had 21 points and 14 rebounds in the opener. Rebuilding Phoenix comes off an 89-80 loss at Las Vegas. Last season, they were 10th defensively surrendering 84.9 points per game. The last time these teams met it was a 94-76 Atlanta win and this shapes up as another offensive show. Play Atlanta/Phoenix OVER the total. 

Both teams have hit hard times and Atlanta is laying too many points no matter who it is playing as it has lost six of seven with a 2-5 ATS mark. Phoenix played one of its best games in a while, but came up short 77-74 against Dallas on Sunday. The Mercury shot 51.6 percent with Moriah Jefferson scoring a team-leading 20 points, and Brittney Griner added 19 points, as Dallas was held to 36 percent from the field. If Phoenix can come close to that performance it can cover the number and even get an outright win against the Dream, who have lost eight of their past 10 and are three games below .500 after getting off to a decent start this season. Phoenix destroyed the Dream 91-71 on Aug. 3 and that was without Griner. The Mercury allow 83.5 points per game compared to 84.5 for Atlanta. Take the Mercury ATS and on the moneyline, plus a Max Play on the OVER.