Atlanta Dream vs Phoenix Mercury Point Spread Picks

Atlanta has been one of the best teams in the East all season, and the Dream have already beaten Phoenix twice this year, including a 14-point win back on August 5. That history is a big part of why tonight's number sits where it does, and it is also why it might be a point or two too generous to the favorite. Atlanta walks into the desert without Brionna Jones, its starting forward and a steady piece of a team that has leaned on its size and rebounding all season. Phoenix has struggled in most phases, ranking near the bottom of the league in both scoring efficiency and points allowed, but the Mercury do get a jolt back in Kelsey Plum, even with her status carrying a game-time question mark on a calf issue. A high-scoring, healthy favorite covering by two possessions on the road makes sense. Doing it again without a piece that has been in the rotation all season, against a team getting a key scorer back, is a tougher ask than the spread suggests. Take Phoenix on the spread tonight.

Atlanta has gone UNDER in its last three games. It is easy to see why. The Dream rank fourth defensively giving up 79 points a game. They also are fourth in defensive field goal percentage, first in 3-point defense and force 12 turnovers per game. Point guard Jordin Canada leads the league in steals per game and Angel Reese is second in the league in rebounds per game. The Dream just held Dallas to 69 points two days ago. That was 22 points below the Wings' season scoring average. The Mercury should not lack motivation having lost two in a row. Defense should be a priority since they surrendered 97 and 98 points in their last two outings. Phoenix has had defensive issues this season. But they have also played several high scoring teams, including the Sparks this past Thursday and Aces. Note, too, this is a day game with an early start. That is a plus for the UNDER. Take the UNDER.

Phoenix is fifth in the 13-team WNBA in scoring (83.8 ppg), plus sixth in shooting and 3-point shooting (33.8%). They're on a 10-7 run OVER the total. Atlanta comes home after playing seven of the last eight on the road. The offense is sixth in scoring (83.6 ppg), though 11th in free-throw shooting (76.3%). Atlanta is on an 11-5 run OVER the total. They're also on a 2-5 spread run at home, so back the visitors in a high-scoring affair. Play Phoenix + OVER the total.