Atlanta Dream vs Phoenix Mercury Point Spread Picks

Atlanta has gone UNDER in its last three games. It is easy to see why. The Dream rank fourth defensively giving up 79 points a game. They also are fourth in defensive field goal percentage, first in 3-point defense and force 12 turnovers per game. Point guard Jordin Canada leads the league in steals per game and Angel Reese is second in the league in rebounds per game. The Dream just held Dallas to 69 points two days ago. That was 22 points below the Wings' season scoring average. The Mercury should not lack motivation having lost two in a row. Defense should be a priority since they surrendered 97 and 98 points in their last two outings. Phoenix has had defensive issues this season. But they have also played several high scoring teams, including the Sparks this past Thursday and Aces. Note, too, this is a day game with an early start. That is a plus for the UNDER. Take the UNDER.

Phoenix is fifth in the 13-team WNBA in scoring (83.8 ppg), plus sixth in shooting and 3-point shooting (33.8%). They're on a 10-7 run OVER the total. Atlanta comes home after playing seven of the last eight on the road. The offense is sixth in scoring (83.6 ppg), though 11th in free-throw shooting (76.3%). Atlanta is on an 11-5 run OVER the total. They're also on a 2-5 spread run at home, so back the visitors in a high-scoring affair. Play Phoenix + OVER the total. 

This is the first meeting of the season between these teams, and the first time Brittney Griner will face her former team as she now is a member of the Dream, and averaging 10.2 points and 5.7 rebounds. Allisha Gray (18.6) and Rhyne Howard (16.5) lead Atlanta in scoring. The Dream are 13-10 and have their best team in several years although they do come off a loss to Las Vegas last night. Phoenix hasn't played in a week after ending the first half of the season with a 79-66 loss at Minnesota. The Mercury have gone OVER five straight against Eastern Conference opponents, and they have gone OVER four of six home games. Atlanta is 7-3-1 ATS the past 11 meetings and the Dream have gone OVER eight of their past 12 games. Atlanta might have been looking ahead to this matchup in their loss on Tuesday. Take the Dream ATS and on the moneyline, and bet this game to go OVER.

Phoenix has won two of the three meetings this season and although the Mercury have lost three in row, it should be noted that all three were against the league's top teams. Now they get to play Atlanta again and the Mercury are 9-4-1 ATS against teams with losing records. Phoenix has covered the spread five of the past seven meetings at home. The Dream are playing their fourth game in six days and the first three were on the road. Atlanta is 11-21 on the season and just two games from last place in the Eastern Conference. The Dream have lost eight of their past nine road games outright. Take the Mercury on the moneyline — Max Play.