Atlanta Dream vs New York Liberty Point Spread Picks

Atlanta has looked the part of the East's best team lately: a 32-point demolition of Washington, then a convincing win over Chicago on Tuesday. But the Dream's recent opponents have been flattered by how comfortable those wins looked. Washington is 4-6. Chicago is scoring 80 points a night. New York is a different category. The Liberty are 8-4, averaging 87.3 per game while holding opponents to 82.2, the fourth-best defensive mark in the WNBA. They lead the league in free-throw percentage at 86.1%, meaning any defensive pressure Atlanta applies translates directly to points at the other end. For quality-of-competition context: when Indiana hosted Atlanta earlier this month, the Fever won 83-71. New York beat that same Indiana squad 83-75 on the road the following weekend. The Dream are real, but this is a four-point number in a conference title-race matchup between two evenly matched teams. Side with the Liberty tonight.

New York is third in the WNBA offensively in points scored (86.4 per game), fourth in field goal shooting (45.4%), second from long range (35.7%), and No. 1 from the free-throw line (83.7%). The defense is second in shooting allowed (42.24%). Atlanta has had a challenging six days, playing games on the West Coast at Golden State and Las Vegas, then coming home to knock off top-ranked Minnesota two nights ago, 75-73. The defense is seventh in the 13-team league in shooting allowed. New York won the last meeting, 79-72, allowing 37.5% shooting while forcing 16 turnovers. Play New York. 

New York has won eight of the past nine meetings, including 86-81 in the first one this season. Both teams lost on Friday, but the Dream had to go overtime before falling 96-92 to Minnesota. It was Atlanta's second loss in a row as it lost to lowly Dallas 68-55 the game before and the Dream are on a 0-4 ATS run. New York has won 16 of 22 road games dating to last season and it has won and covered the past five meetings on the road versus the Dream. The Liberty are still adjusting to the absence of center Jonquel Jones, who is out indefinitely with an ankle injury. However, the defending champs still have enough depth with Breanna Stewart (20.7 ppg) and Sabrina Ionescu (18.9 ppg) leading the way. Take the Liberty.

This is the first meeting of the season, and Atlanta has covered the spread three times out of the last four meetings in 2024. The Dream are 8-3 ATS this year, and they have won seven of eight (7-1 ATS) after crushing Washington 89-56 on Sunday. Allisha Gray poured in 32 points, and the Dream hit 18 3-pointers. The Mystics were held to 30 percent shooting and 3-for-17 from beyond the arc. Atlanta has won its past three games by an average of 23.3 points. New York lost for the first time this season, 102-88, at Indiana as Caitlin Clark put on another shooting expedition and scored 32 points. The Liberty had feasted on a weak schedule in the early going in 2025, and they now have another big challenge against red-hot Atlanta. New York is 1-4 ATS in its past five against teams with winning records. Take the Dream ATS and on the moneyline.

Atlanta will look to shoot better than it did in Game 1 as the Dream hit only three of 16 3-point tries and shot 40 percent overall. Rhyne Howard (14 points) and Tina Charles (12 points) were the only players in double figures. New York shot just 43 percent, but the Liberty were a little better from 3-point range. It will be difficult for the Liberty to cover a big number in consecutive games as they still are just 2-6 ATS their past eight home games against Atlanta and 1-6 ATS their past seven home games overall. The Dream have covered 11 of 15 on the road, 15-7-1 ATS their past 23 games overall and they are facing elimination in this first-round three-game series. Take the points with the Dream.