Atlanta Dream vs Minnesota Lynx Point Spread Picks

Atlanta's four-game win streak ended hard two nights ago, a blowout loss to Portland that snapped a run that had included two wins over the Sparks. Minnesota enters on the other extreme, sitting on five days of rest since its last game, a home loss to Golden State that was the exception to a season that's otherwise made the Lynx the best team in this league at 31-8. That rest gap is the whole game for me. Atlanta is playing again on a quick turnaround while Minnesota has had almost a week to get healthy and scout this matchup, and history says the team getting less rest holds up better against the spread than the market gives it credit for. Add in that the Lynx are the kind of elite opponent, a team winning better than three out of every four games, that home underdogs have quietly fared well against all season, and Atlanta getting extra points here looks like more cushion than this game actually needs to be live. The Dream have shown they can play with anybody in this league when healthy. Take Atlanta with the points this afternoon.

Minnesota has had four days to prepare and gear up for this revenge matchup against Atlanta. The Dream nipped the Lynx, 91-90, as 5.5-point road favorites in the season opener on May 9. The Lynx have one of the best coaches in the league in Cheryl Reeve. Minnesota has proven it can win without its injured five-time All-Star center Napheesa Collier, who is out following offseason surgery on both of her ankles. The Lynx have gone 4-1 since that Atlanta loss, with three of the victories coming on the road. This is Atlanta's first road game since May 12. The Dream has had one less day to prepare for this matchup, having been in action this past Sunday. Forward Angel Reese provides the Dream with a lot of publicity, but the Lynx have three guards - Courtney Williams, Olivia Miles, and Kayla McBride - all averaging 15 points a game. Center Natasha Howard is Minnesota's leading scorer at 17 points a game, giving the Lynx a well-rounded attack. Take Minnesota on the moneyline.

Atlanta will be without forward Brionna Jones (12.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg), its leading rebounder and third-leading scorer. She was the only Dream player to start every regular-season and playoff game last season. Minnesota is a home dog despite going 20-2 at home last year. They've had a makeover, plus star Napheesa Collier is rehabbing. However, this is a terrific coaching staff under Cheryl Reeve, the WNBA's longest-tenured coach. They also got the No. 2 pick in the draft via a 2025 trade with Chicago, taking speedy, elite playmaker Olivia Miles, who has played very well in the preseason. Play Minnesota on the moneyline.

The teams have split two meetings this year and both went OVER by substanial margins, including Atlanta's 90-86 win on July 27, which soared OVER by 16.5 points. The Dream have won seven of nine although they do come off a close loss at Las Vegas 74-72 on Tuesday. The Dream are on a 6-1-1 ATS run. Minnesota had a six-game win streak snapped with an 85-75 loss at New York as the Liberty hit 13 3-pointers. Atlanta has covered four straight following a loss and six of seven against Western Conference opponents. The Dream have gone OVER seven of 10 home games and seven of nine home games against the Lynx have sailed OVER. Minnesota is 7-0 OVER following a loss. Atlanta has won 10 of its past 14 home games. Take the Dream and the OVER.

Atlanta remembers a tough 96-92 overtime loss the last meeting on June 27 and now the Dream is out for payback on the road tonight against the Lynx. The Dream shot just 4-for-22 from 3-point range in that game and still took it to the wire. The game went OVER by 23.5 points for the fourth OVER the past six meetings. The OVER is 5-1 in Minnesota's past six games against teams with winning records and the Dream are 4-1 OVER following an ATS win. Atlanta beat Phoenix 90-79 on Wednesday as a 7.5 -point underdog and they're getting similar points in this matchup. The Dream shot 50 percent and hit 10 of 24 on 3-point tries against the Mercury. Allisha Gray scored 28 points. Atlanta has gone OVER nine of its past 13 games. Take the Dream on the moneyline and the OVER.