Atlanta Dream vs Los Angeles Sparks Point Spread Picks

Los Angeles is 13-24, and four days ago Atlanta ran them off the floor in this same building, a 22-point first quarter that buried the game before it even settled in. I had the Sparks getting the points that night, and it never got competitive enough to cash. The first-half total did, though, with both offenses trading buckets in a track meet before either defense showed up, and that split is what I am working from again tonight. Los Angeles answered two nights later, beating Connecticut 77-68 while winning the rebounding battle 40-30, a legitimate performance on the glass that is the backbone of tonight's number. Atlanta is riding a three-game win streak of its own, scoring in bunches against Las Vegas, these Sparks, and Phoenix in turn, and there is no reason to expect a slow start tonight. That is exactly the kind of environment that gets a first half moving fast before either team settles defensively, and the spread has barely budged since that blowout, which tells me the market is not pricing a repeat. Los Angeles does not have to be competitive for four quarters, just for a few more possessions than it managed the last time these two shared a court. Take the first-half OVER, and take the Sparks with the points tonight.

Atlanta's been rolling behind that Gray-Howard combo, coming off a 97-82 win over Las Vegas on Tuesday in which Rhyne Howard dropped 23, and the Dream sit second in the East at 22-13 with the fourth-ranked defense in the league at 85.7 points allowed a night. The Sparks are the opposite story heading into tonight: a five-game slide, a 12-23 mark, and a night that doubles as a farewell tour after Nneka Ogwumike announced this week that this is her final season. Los Angeles has gone just 5-11 at home and sits 3-10 in games decided by ten or more, which is exactly why this number is padded enough to matter. Atlanta ranks third in the league in scoring at 90.3 a night, and neither roster is built to walk the ball up early — Rae Burrell is averaging 18.1 points over her last ten games, and Ogwumike is still putting up 16.9 and 8.7 boards a night for a team that continues to get buckets even while losing. Both sides play fast enough that this game opens in a hurry, and that early trade of buckets is the through-line I keep coming back to on this ticket: it's what gets the first half to the total before either defense settles in, and it's the same pace that keeps the Sparks within arm's reach of the number even if Atlanta pulls away late. Los Angeles doesn't need to win this outright; it just needs to keep scoring at the rate it has all year, and a road team playing its third game in five nights rarely turns that into a laugher. Take the first-half OVER, and take the Sparks with the points tonight.

The Sparks have dropped three straight true road games since Kelsey Plum went down with a lower-leg injury in late June, and this stretch has looked exactly like what a team missing its second-leading scorer should look like: thin, searching, grinding out possessions instead of finding easy ones. But this number treats Atlanta like a team that's been steamrolling the league, and that's not this Dream club. Atlanta was mired in a five-game losing skid before snapping it against Seattle last week, and the Dream sit at 9-12 against the spread on the year, well underwater as a favorite in spots like this. Nneka Ogwumike is still producing without Plum, averaging 16.5 points and 8.6 boards a night, with Erica Wheeler running the point in relief. Atlanta counters with Rhyne Howard's 18.9 points and Angel Reese banging inside for 11.7 rebounds, but this is a team that's shown it can let winnable games slip. Laying this many points on a club that just crawled out of its own funk is too rich a price, and my number says this line is soft. We're on the Sparks with the points tonight.

Los Angeles boasts a dynamic offense led by Kelsey Plum (19.9 ppg, 5.9 apg) and Dearica Hamby (18.3 ppg, 8.0 rpg), ranking second in scoring (85.8 points per game), second in shooting percentage (46%), and third in three-point shooting (34.8%). The Sparks have split two on this road trip, losing to Atlanta two nights ago, 86-75, while winning at Seattle (91-85) as a +7.5 underdog. Los Angeles is on a 15-10 run, winning straight-up eight times as a dog. Atlanta is seventh in the 12-team league in field goal shooting (43.9 ppg), ninth from long range (33.2%), and seventh from the free-throw line. After their last 11 losses, Los Angeles has bounced back and won eight times, including as underdogs of +5.5, +5, +4.5, and +5. The visitors have more than enough to keep this close and pull off another bounce-back win. Take Los Angeles on the moneyline.  

Los Angeles has a terrific offense behind Kelsey Plum (19.9 ppg, 5.8 apg) and Dearica Hamby (18.2 ppg, 7.9 rpg), ranked second in scoring (86 points per game), second in shooting (46%), and third from long range (34.8%). The defense, however, still struggles at 12th in points given up (87.9 ppg) and 11th in shooting allowed (45.47%). They come off wins over Washington (81-78) and Seattle (91-85), on a 27-11 run OVER the total. Atlanta is fifth in scoring (83.68 ppg), off wins over Dallas (100-78) and Connecticut (93-76). Offense will take center stage in this shootout. Take Los Angeles/Atlanta OVER the total.