Atlanta Dream vs Indiana Fever

Atlanta comes off a 90-81 win over Golden State on Monday to move to 12-7 straight up this season. Allisha Gray led the Dream with 24 points, and they had five double-figure scorers while hitting 11 3s. Indiana has lost two in a row, and the Fever are 1-4 ATS in their past five home games. Caitlin Clark has returned from a groin injury, but the Fever were blown out at home 80-61 by the Valkyries, and she went 4-for-12 from the field for just 10 points. Indiana shot just 31 percent and missed 21 of 27 3-point tries. Atlanta has gone OVER seven of eight overall and seven of its past eight road games against the Fever. The Dream has covered five of seven road contests and six of eight road games against Indiana. The Fever are 8-1 OVER their past nine Friday games. They are just a slight favorite in this matchup. Take the Dream on the moneyline and the OVER.

Indiana is third in the WNBA in scoring (84.5 ppg). They're outscoring opponents by +8.1 points per game, the third-best differential in the league. Indiana has won and covered two in a row, off a 79-52 win at Chicago. They're also on a 4-2 ATS run. Atlanta has a soft defense, ranked ninth in the 13-team league in field goal shooting allowed (44.38%), while the offense is 10th in shooting at 42.8% from the field. Atlanta returns home from a three-game road trip, having lost its last game at Connecticut, 84-76, while allowing 50% shooting and getting outscored in points in the paint, 44-32. Play Indiana. 

This game marks the second of a home-and-home series. Indiana was a 7-point favorite at home against Atlanta in the last game, but lost 91-90. The problem was the same as last year: defense. Atlanta got 34 points in the paint and made 25-of-32 free throws, while Indiana missed 10 freebies (16-of-26). Last season, Indiana was the second-worst defensive team in the WNBA. Atlanta returns its leading scorers in guards Rhyne Howard (17.3 ppg in 2024) and Allisha Gray (15.6 ppg), both two-time All-Stars. They've added 6-9 Brittney Griner, Brionna Jones, and veteran Shatori Walker-Kimbrough. Jones had 19 points and 13 rebounds against Indiana, while Griner had 21 points and eight boards. They match up well to win again in front of their home fans. Play Atlanta on the moneyline.

Atlanta returns its leading scorers in guards Rhyne Howard (17.3 ppg in 2024) and Allisha Gray (15.6 ppg), both two-time All-Stars. They've added 6-9 Brittney Griner, Brionna Jones, and veteran Shatori Walker-Kimbrough. Griner had 18 points in the opener and Jones 16, though they lost to Washington, 94-90, allowing 50.8% shooting. Atlanta is on an 18-9-1 ATS run. Indiana played uptempo in the opener, as well, scoring 93 points in a win over a Chicago squad that was 13-27 last season. Indiana was the second-worst defensive team in the WNBA last season and is on a 2-6-2 ATS run. Play Atlanta ATS and take a small flyer on the moneyline. I'm also backing the OVER, in what should be a shootout. 

Atlanta has played the Fever tough in three games this season with nothing to show for it, but look for the Dream to finally break through in today's matchup. The Dream come off a 107-96 victory over Dallas on Friday night while shooting 50 percent from the field and they were led by Rhyne Howard, who scored 33 points, and Tina Charles added 20 points for Atlanta, which had been 6-1-1 UNDER its previous eight games. Indiana had its five-game win streak snapped in a 99-88 loss to Minnesota as Caitlin Clark scored 25 points in a losing effort. Atlanta is 9-1-2 ATS against teams with winning records and 6-2-1 ATS playing with one day of rest. The Dream is 7-3-1 ATS its past 11 road games and 8-3-2 ATS its past 13 games overall. The UNDER is 20-8-1 with the Dream play with one day of rest and they are 18-7-1 UNDER following a win. Atlanta has stayed UNDER 13 of 16 Sunday games. Take the Dream ATS as a Max Play, on the moneyline and go with the UNDER.