Atlanta Dream vs Indiana Fever Point Spread Picks

Indiana walked out of their own gym Thursday night having scored 101 points. That loss stings, but it underscores what this offense is capable of doing against anyone, including Atlanta's second-ranked defense. Caitlin Clark is directing one of the highest-scoring attacks in the league, and Kelsey Mitchell has been this team's engine all season, with both capable of 20-plus on any given night. Aliyah Boston's interior production keeps the floor balanced and the scoring spread around. Atlanta will control the glass, Angel Reese will put up another double-double, and Gray and Howard are in the kind of form where buckets come in bunches. But the spread is asking Indiana to get beaten by a margin that their offense makes very difficult to sustain over 40 minutes. The Fever aren't going to solve their defensive problems this afternoon, but they don't need to. Take Indiana with the points.

Indiana has won six straight at home this season and enters tonight coming off back-to-back blowouts. On Tuesday, Kelsey Mitchell scored 27 points, Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston each posted a double-double, and the Fever beat Toronto 113-91. The form and the venue are both right. The more relevant number for tonight isn't that blowout margin. It's what these two teams produced the last time they met: Indiana beat Atlanta 83-71 at home in early June, holding Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard to a combined 21 points. Gray averages 19.7 per game; Howard averages 18.0. The Fever's defense built that result, and Atlanta's offense hasn't found an answer. The Dream are 9-4 and built to compete. Angel Reese controls the glass, Gray and Howard can take over any game, and Atlanta ranks second in the league in defensive efficiency. But the Dream doesn't run teams out of the gym; they grind. The posted total is more than 20 points above what these teams actually produced when they met on this same floor, and the market is overreacting to Indiana's recent offensive explosion against a weaker Toronto defense. Against Atlanta's second-ranked unit, the Fever's output contracts. Against Indiana's defense, Gray and Howard face the same problems they encountered in the first meeting. Both rosters are built to contain opponents. The score follows. Side with Indiana and take the UNDER.

We've got a winner-take-all Game 3 matchup on tap tonight, with Atlanta favored to bounce back from Tuesday's double-digit loss. Indiana's defense did a great job in Game 2, taking away Atlanta's three-ball threat. They allowed 60 points and a 37.9% shooting percentage, including 26.3% (5-of-19) from long range. Indiana is on a 12-7 run UNDER the total. Atlanta ranked third in the WNBA during the regular season in points allowed, first in defensive rebounds, and fifth in shooting percentage allowed (42.8%). They're on an 18-8 run UNDER the total. With so much at stake, expect a fierce defensive effort from both teams. Take Indiana/Atlanta UNDER the total. 

Atlanta beat the Fever 80-68 in Game 1 to take a series lead in this best-of-three. Allisha Gray and Ryne Howard each scored 20 points for the Dream, who are 8-0 ATS their past eight against the Eastern Conference. Atlanta is also 14-3 ATS following a win. Indiana is 0-3-1 ATS its past four Round 1 games and the Fever's injury problems are taking a serious toll in the playoffs. Kelsey Mitchell scored 27 points, but got little help from her teammates as Odyssey Sims was the only other double-figure scorer with 10 points. Indiana shot just 35 percent overall and 13 percent from 3-point range. The Fever's lack of depth showed as the Dream took the lead with 7:27 left in the third quarter and didn't relinquish it. Take the Dream.