Atlanta Dream vs Golden State Valkyries Point Spread Picks

We were on Atlanta to cover a bigger number against Washington on Thursday, and it did not work, the Dream's slide stretching to four straight losses. Golden State delivered two of those defeats already this year, both tight, and Rhyne Howard's shooting line in the rematch, two makes on sixteen attempts, was the ugliest number of the stretch. That kind of slump tends to correct rather than compound, and Angel Reese has kept producing a double-double look regardless of how the shots fall around her. Gabby Williams has had the answers for Golden State so far, but this is the third look at her in two weeks, and Atlanta's defense gets another crack at tendencies it has already seen twice. Playing this one at home changes the math more than a four-game skid suggests. I like the Dream to get right on their own floor tonight. Back Atlanta on the spread.

Golden State won Wednesday's opener of this two-game set 77-66 behind a shooting performance that dismantled Atlanta's defensive lapses on the perimeter — the Valkyries connected on 15 three-pointers, Atlanta made just one in the first half, and the Dream recorded their lowest point total of the season. Even accounting for a bounce-back, tonight's game still runs through the same structural reality: Golden State is one of the league's most efficient defenses, holding opponents well below 80 points per game, and they play at a pace that keeps scoring volumes down. Atlanta is a better offensive team than their 66 suggested — Reese was three-of-12 from the field and never found a rhythm — but Allisha Gray departed Wednesday in the third quarter with an upper body injury and has not been cleared for tonight. The posted total has room for the UNDER to cash even if Atlanta finds its footing. Play the UNDER tonight.

Golden State has scored 73 and 75 in back-to-back games entering tonight, with its offense sputtering through a stretch in which its most reliable weapons have gone quiet. The Valkyries shot 5-for-30 from three-point range in their last outing, a historically poor output from the perimeter, and nothing in recent games suggests a correction is imminent. Atlanta brings a 12-4 record and legitimate two-way capability, but the Dream are making a cross-country trip for a late West Coast start, which tends to show up in shot-making for Eastern teams in ways that don't always register until the final score. There's a specific situational lean here as well: teams that trailed by 20 or more at halftime in their previous game have historically played into unders in their next outing, and Golden State found themselves down exactly that much at the break against Las Vegas. The total here provides a substantial cushion. Go with the UNDER.

This is the second meeting and Golden State will look for payback for a 90-81 loss on July 7 in a game that went OVER by 13 points. The Valkyries had five scorers in double figures and shot 48 percent, but still came up short. Golden State has the motivational edge tonight as it comes off a humiliating 31-point loss to Connecticut on Sunday and it still went OVER the total as the Valkyries forgot to play defense. Atlanta is in a letdown situation as this is its first home game since July 7 after playing six consecutive road contests ending with a huge 90-86 victory over Minnesota. That game soared OVER by 16.5 points and the Dream have gone OVER 10 of 14 games overall and their past five home games have gone OVER. Three picks for this game: Take the Valkyries ATS, back them on the moneyline, and bet this game OVER the total.