Atlanta Dream vs Dallas Wings

Dallas is fourth in the WNBA in scoring (83.7 points per game), fifth in shooting, and second in offensive rebounds behind Natasha Howard (17.4 ppg, 7 rpg) and Arike Ogunbowale (22.8 ppg). They've won three of five, including a 93-90 upset against Las Vegas as a +9 underdog and a 94-76 rout of Minnesota as a +8 dog. Atlanta is in the role of favorite, though they're 11-22 on the season, getting outcored by four points per game on average. They're last in the league in scoring and shooting (40.8%). Atlanta is also 11th in 3-point shooting and is 6-9-1 ATS at home. Play Dallas. 

Dallas is fifth defensively in points allowed. This is their first road game after splitting the first two at home against Chicago. The offense is the fourth-worst in scoring and shooting (40.5%). Atlanta plays its first home game after splitting two in L.A. and Phoenix. WNBA road teams like Dallas that averaged 62 or more shots per game in the previous season after a game where they made 90%+ of their free throws with a total of 150+ are 36-13 UNDER the total. Play Dallas/Atlanta UNDER the total.

Dallas has covered the number four in a row after defeating the Dream 94-82 in Game 1 on Friday with Satou Sabally scoring a team-leading 32 points, and Arike Ogunbowale adding 24 points for the Wings, who held Atlanta to 37 percent shooting although Rhyne Howard poured in 36 points. The Dream have dropped six of their past nine games and faded down the stretch after a strong start to the season. Dallas has won and covered the past five meetings by an average of 10.5 points. Atlanta is 1-10 ATS its past 11 road games and 1-7 ATS overall against teams with winning records. The Wings are 6-0 ATS playing with at least three days rest and they have covered seven of eight against Eastern Conference opponents. Look for Dallas to get off to a better start after falling behind 36-21 on Friday. Take the Wings as a Max Play. 

The Atlanta Dream will open their playoff series vs. the Atlanta Dream at home. This should be a competitive series as Atlanta enters as the 5 seed and Dallas the 4 seed. Atlanta finished four games under .500 but they had a better finish as they went 5-4 in their last nine games. Atlanta has done a good job this season shortening the game, and a slow tempo. I think that is going to make the points look big. These teams are not very far apart in talent, so grabbing what looks to be an overlay on the Wings, looks like a strong move. Atlanta has been great at revenging a home loss to an opponent, as they have risen up in their next game by going 75-52 ATS in their last 127 in this spot. Make the play on Atlanta.

Dallas has locked up the No. seed and Atlanta can clinch the No. 5 seed with a win today. The Wings are 24-15 OVER this season and they are 9-1 OVER their past 10 games, including by an average of 15 points their past two games against New York and Seattle. Dallas shot 59.4 percent while annihilating the Storm 106-91 on Friday night and it sailed OVER by 27 points. The teams combined for 101 points in the first half and in the game against the Liberty 104 points were scored before halftime. The OVER is 11-0 in the Wings' past 11 games following a win and they are 20-8 OVER playing with one day of rest. The Dream have gone OVER seven straight versus teams with winning records. Take the first half to go OVER as a Max Play.