Atlanta Dream vs Connecticut Sun Point Spread Picks

Connecticut is 8-23 and owns the league's worst point differential at -7.1 a game, but that's an offense problem more than a defensive one; the Sun's issue is scoring, not stopping anybody in particular. Tonight's spot is really about Atlanta. The Dream are 20-12 and one of the league's best offenses at 89.6 points per game, yet their average margin of victory is a modest 3.6 points, the signature of a team that scores in bunches without ever putting a defensive stranglehold on a game. Their last four outings have produced 202, 178, 196, and 187 combined points, the kind of number that keeps climbing regardless of opponent. We had Atlanta's total earlier this week against Toronto, and it cashed for the same reason: this defense doesn't get stops; it just tries to outscore whoever's across from it. That same generosity is what keeps a lifeless Connecticut offense involved deep into games it has no business staying in, and the Sun snapped a rough stretch of their own with a 75-72 win over Phoenix last time out. Pair Atlanta's refusal to slow down with a defense that can't make anyone miss, and the total keeps climbing while the favorite never pulls far enough away to cover a double-digit number. I like both sides of this shape tonight: the total staying live deep into the fourth, and Connecticut hanging around behind it. Take the Sun with the points and the OVER. 

Atlanta has been one of the most complete teams in the East since the offseason additions clicked — Allisha Gray doing damage at better than 21 points a night, Angel Reese dominating the glass at nearly 11 rebounds per game after her move from Chicago, and Jordin Canada running the show at nearly seven assists. The Dream is legitimately built to win a championship. Connecticut enters this one having just snapped a three-game losing streak with an 84-81 win at the Sparks — a result that shows this team can still compete when it is executing — but the talent gap here is real, and Atlanta is at home. The number, though, is where this gets interesting. It is historically large for any WNBA matchup, and a Connecticut squad anchored by Brittney Griner in her 13th season has the experience to slow Atlanta down and make this a half-court grind when the situation demands it. Big road underdogs that can establish that kind of game rarely get beaten by the margin the market is implying. Connecticut covers the spread, and the moneyline is live at the right price. Take the Sun ATS and on the moneyline.

Combine the Dream (-949) and the Dodgers (-311) into a 2-team parlay at -215 odds.

Atlanta is cruising into the playoffs with a four-game win streak, but the Dream will be asked to cover a significant number tonight against Connecticut, which has won five of nine and is on a 7-3 ATS run. The Sun came off an 87-84 victory as a 10.5-point underdog against Phoenix on Saturday, and the game went OVER. Marina Mabrey led the Sun with 23 points, and Tina Charles added 22. The Dream are 2-7 ATS in their past nine home games against Connecticut, which has gone OVER in four of its past five games. The Sun are out to avenge a 93-76 loss to Atlanta last Monday when they shot 50 percent, but missed 15 of 17 3-point tries, and the game still went OVER. The Sun wants to end the season on a high note this week to build for next year, while the Dream is preparing for the postseason. Take the points with the Sun and the OVER.

Atlanta is fifth in the league in scoring (83.5 ppg), off a 100-78 rout of Dallas. Four players are averaging double-digits in scoring, with the backcourt leading the way behind Allisha Gray (18.7 ppg) and Rhyne Howard (16.6 ppg). Connecticut's defense allows the fourth-most points (85.7 per game). The offense is fifth from the charity stripe (79.6%) and has been playing well, scoring 93, 80, 94, 79, and 101 points in five of its last seven games. Take Atlanta/Connecticut OVER the total.