Atlanta Dream vs Chicago Sky Point Spread Picks

Atlanta just authored the kind of night that makes a double-digit favorite look justified, Angel Reese logging another double-double as the Dream pulled away late for a 111-92 win over Toronto that pushed them to 15-10 and validated everything the market believes about this roster. Chicago quietly took care of its own business the same night, beating the Sparks 96-82 to sit at 9-16, a record that undersells a defense that's held opponents under 31 percent shooting from three on the road this stretch. That number matters today. Atlanta has cooled from deep, connecting on well under 30 percent of its attempts over its last five games, and a Chicago defense built to make you work for every look is the kind of matchup that keeps a scoreboard from getting away from anybody. The Sky have covered this exact number in four of their last five games and three straight, proof this roster travels better against the spread than its record suggests, while Atlanta hasn't covered as a home favorite at this size in four of its last five. Sharp money has quietly found its way to Chicago today, another sign the number is bigger than this game calls for. I like the Sky to keep this competitive into the fourth, and I like the total to stay in check with a cooling Atlanta offense running into a defense that doesn't give up easy buckets. Take the Sky plus the points, and take the UNDER, this afternoon.

Atlanta has the third-best record in the league with great balance. They're fifth in points scored and 3-point shooting, while the defense is third in points given up and No. 1 in defensive rebounding. They've won three in a row overall, as well as three straight on the road. Atlanta won at Minnesota (90-86) as a +8 dog, at Phoenix (90-79) at +7.5, and at Dallas (88-85) as a small favorite. Chicago's offense is ninth in the 13-team league in shooting (42.2%), 12th in scoring, and 11th from the free-throw line (76.2%). Their best player, Angel Reese (14.2 ppg, 12.6 rpg), has missed six of the last eight games with a bad back. The defense is 10th in points allowed and in shooting allowed. Chicago is 5-10 straight-up at home, with the wagering value on the visitors to win the game. Play Atlanta on the moneyline.

Atlanta barely got by Washington with a 92-91 win on Friday after losing 86-81 to New York the game before. Now the Dream are laying as many points as they have all season. The Mystics shot 53 percent and the game went OVER by 26 points and the Dream went OVER by 5.5 points against the Liberty. Chicago also went OVER by 33 points versus Phoenix on Saturday while shooting 53 percent, but the defense was obviously lacking and the Mercury hit 17 of 35 3-point tries. Atlanta is just #7 in the league in 3-point shooting percentage with 33.6 percent. Look for Chicago to stay within the huge number. Take the big points with the Sky and the OVER.