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2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 05, 2008

05

Washington at Seattle

Saturday 01/05 04:30 PM Eastern

4 units on Seattle -3 (-120) (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: win

4 units on Game Total UNDER 40 -110 (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: loss

There is a lot of buzz surrounding the hot Redskins right now as they closed the season with four straight wins to earn the final Wildcard slot. The public has certainly bought into this team, but we have not. We don't have much faith when it comes playoff time in backing a QB that has seen little action in 13 years. Todd Collins didn't start for 10 years for a reason. He's done very well of late but he is no savoir - not when playing the league's elite teams. He has a propensity to fumble (17 times in 44 games) and throw as many INTs as TDs (22 TDs, 19 INTs). The Seattle defensive line is about as good as it gets. Pat Kerney and Julian Peterson are going to be in Collins grill all game. Marcus Trufant is an excellent corner, and he should have no problem containing Santana Moss. The Skins running game is mostly Clinton Portis and he's solid. But his numbers have been going backward now for the last three years and this year, at 3.9 ypc, he is not even at the league average. The Seahawks are 4th in the league in sacks, so if Washington can't run the ball effectively, they are putting an inexperienced QB in serious trouble. Seattle has thrived on turning the opponent over as they are +10 and have 20 INTs on the season. The Seahawks allow just 18.2 ppg, which is less than 2 points per game away from the NFL leading Colts. The Seahawks are a "home" team and have held half their home opponents to 6 points or less! Matt Hasselback is a playoff tested very good QB. This season he threw 28 TD passes to just 12 INTs. Then there is the issue of homefield advantage where the Seahawks have been dominant winning 23 of their last 27 at home, including three straight playoff games. They are better at taking care of the ball than Washington (Seattle +9 on turnovers while Washington is -5). Don't be fooled by the recent Washington run - Seattle is the better team across the board. These teams don't dominate with their offenses, but Seattle has the more experienced and better QB which is huge in January. The weather will be a factor for this one, as the forecast calls for rainy and windy conditions. That will hold the score down. Seattle has played three of their last four home playoff games UNDER. On the season, Washington is 5-3 UNDER on the road while Seattle is 5-3 UNDER at home. Under Joe Gibbs, the Redskins are 40-22 UNDER vs. conference opponents, 19-9 UNDER as a road underdog and 9-1 UNDER on the road to a total in the 38.5 to 42 range. We like Seattle in a game that should not get out of the 30s.


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