Washington at Pittsburgh

The Pirates pulled it out as one of our picks yesterday and I like them again here for the sweep. As bad as they are on the road, Pittsburgh is decent at home where they are playing nearly .500 ball. They score 5.3 runs per game at home and their bullpen plays very well (3.37 ERA). Washington has lost five straight and they are a 38% road team. They are allowing over 8 runs per game over their past seven games and seem lost. Livan Hernandez has been weak this year and he's gotten tagged of late allowing 22 hits and 13 earned runs in his last three starts. Back to the bullpens. Pittsburgh's is solid at home while Washington's is not on the road (5.08 ERA). It was the difference yesterday as Pittsburgh won late. The Pirates have actually won 10 of 13 games at home this season when facing a poor bullpen with an ERA of 4.50 or greater. Road teams at +125 to -125 with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.750 or worse are just 15-54 (22%) over the past decade. Hernandez hasn't seaen action since July 6th and underdogs starting a pitcher who gives up 7 or more hits/start that hasen't pitched in 7+ days are only 23-88 (21%) over the past five seasons. Pirates for the rare sweep.