2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 02, 2007
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Sunday 12/02 04:15 PM Eastern
4 units on Tampa Bay +6 (-105) (risk 4 to return 4) RESULT: WIN
It's been feast or famine this year for the Saints. They look like basement dwellers one week, and playoff contenders the next. It may have something to do with the competition. The Saints have been out-scored by teams with winning records 144-107, while they have out-scored teams with losing records 136-108. Tampa Bay, at 7-4 already owns a good 31-14 win vs the Saints, and their defense is really putting it all together now. The Bucs have held seven teams to 14 points or less and most recently, have allowed only 30 points in their last three games (all wins). The Bucs have gone from the inept last year, to a true contender this year. It isn't just the defense. The offense has scored more points the last four games than any other four game sequence this season, so it is a team playing at their peak on both sides of the ball. Jeff Garcia has thrown just 3 INTs all year, while Drew Brees has completed 15 to the wrong team. Part of the problem for the Saints is the lack of a running game, as the Saints offense has become too one-dimensional. Tampa has the type of defense to exploit that flaw. We believe the wrong team is favored here, and will go with the Bucs and the points.