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2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 07, 2007

07

Tampa Bay at Indianapolis

Sunday 10/07 04:05 PM Eastern

3 units on Tampa Bay +12 (-135) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: LOSS

The Indianapolis Colts are once again 4-0 but their win at Denver last week did not come without a price. Marvin Harrison and Joesph Addai will both likely be held out of this game vs. the Bucs. Four other Colts players were hurt including starting LB Rob Morris who is out for the season. The Bucs may be the most improved team this season this side of the Green Bay Packers. Last week Tampa Bay went on the road and manhandled Carolina 23-7. If not for a meaningless touchdown with 23 seconds left in the game, it would have been a shutout. In that game, the Bucs defense allowed just 13 first downs and 236 total yards. In their last three games, they have allowed just 24 total points and they lead the league in fewest total points allowed at just 11 per game. The Tampa Bay defense is back, having allowed just one TD in their last two games. Jeff Garcia has had a huge impact on this team. He has bounced around in his NFL career but one thing has remaind constant - he wins. He is a heady QB that does not make a lot of mistakes and has yet to throw an interception this year. He has wideouts on both sides in Galloway and Hilliard that are capable of going the distance. The Bucs lost Cadillac Williams, which actually may benefit the offense. Williams was getting most of the carries but he has been pretty bad, totalling just 208 yards at 3.9 ypc. . Michael Pittman has been much more effective as he has 30-170 for 5.7 ypc. And sharing carries with Pittman will be Ernest Graham who has rushed for 4.5 ypc. The Bucs strength is running the ball, which is Indy's well-known achillies heel. The Colts rank #22 in stopping the run allowing 127.5 yards per game. That is a the worst for any team considered playoff caliber. That number is worse than it appears because Indy has been playing with a lead and teams are more prone to be in the air. Indy's offense will not be as difficult to defend without Harrison and Addai. Even if they play, they won't be at 100%. The Bucs, as bad as they have struggled in recent years, are on a 10-2 ATS run vs. top teams (those outscoring opponents by 10+ points per game). Mark our words - the Bucs are for real in 2007! We like them to make a game out of this, and if they manage a plus turnover margin, get the outright win! The generous spread is a bit out of line here.


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