Tampa Bay at Boston

The Lightning are mired in a seven-game winless slide, but they have knocked on the door in three of their last four, losing two by a goal and a third via an overtime loss to the Flyers. The Bruins have been in charge pretty much the entire season at home, entering with a stellar 9-1-1 mark. As good as the Bruins have been and as bad as the Lightning have been, there are some things shaping up here that indicate this is a good spot for the Bruins to get caught napping. The Bruins have been just 8-14 at home in their last 22 against a team that wins 25% or less of their games and in the first half of the season that mark drops to 6-12. They have also been only 31-40 vs. teams that score 2.4 goals a game or less. This one looks easy, but history shows it isn't, so I’ll back the Lightning here.