2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 18, 2007

18

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Sunday 11/18 01:00 PM Eastern

4 units on Game Total UNDER 36 -105 (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: LOSS

Atlanta started the season 1-6 and two weeks later are back within striking distance in the Division. It's hard to believe, but is a telling-tale of a division lacking a good team. Much of the problem with the NFC South stems from injuries and lack of competent offenses that are good enough to sustain drives. The losing teams on Tampa Bay's schedule have seen all the games played in the 20s while Atlanta has managed to top the 20 mark themselves just once. So, nine games played with seven UNDERs. Tampa Bay has played six of nine UNDER, in thanks to an underachieving offense. They are 15th in yards gained, but ranked 21st (six spots lower) in points scored. They have an over-achieving defense that is ranked 6th in yards but two spots better in points allowed at #4. Atlanta's offense has also underachieved. They are 27th in yards gained, but are three spots worse (#30) in points scored. They are the same on defense, 16th in yards but two spots lower in points allowed at #14. The bottom line is that in four possible catergories, the DNA of these teams all make the UNDER more likely. The scoreboard has refelected that so far with 13 of 18 games going UNDER between them. Atlanta won last week as an underdog and in weeks 10-13 of the NFL season, teams off an upset road win are 78-39 (67%) to the UNDER in their next game. The past three seasons, Tampa Bay is 13-4 UNDER after a game in which they allowed 14 or fewer points and 14-5 UNDER following a win. Dating back to last season, Atlanta is 18-6 UNDER in all home games including 8-1 UNDER vs. division foes! Barring a defensive or special teams touchdown, we like this one to stay in the twenties or low thirties.

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