2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 12, 2008

12

Seattle at Green Bay

Saturday 01/12 04:30 PM Eastern

4 units on Green Bay -7.5 (-105) (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: win

2 units on Game Total UNDER 44.5 -110 (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: loss

4 units on Green Bay -320 (moneyline) (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: win

In the Wildcard round, Seattle looked to have Washington put away, leading 13-0 going into the fourth quarter but in a flash the Seahawks were trailing 14-13. To their credit, they were able to overcome their sloppy play at home to notch a big win. Seattle ended up 8-1 at home this season after that victory, but this team has really struggled on the road (3-5). The Seahawks this season owned the #19 rated pass defense, not very goods. What makes that worse is that they played 9 of 16 games vs offenses that were ranked 22nd or lower! Any time they played a team that even had a somewhat competent offense, they gave up 24, 33 and 28 points vs teams in the top 10. They also allowed 21, 21 and 23 vs teams in just the top half of the league. They did not have a single game where their defense held an opponent to under 21 points vs an average offense or better! Here they go up against a Green Bay team with a great offense that has averaged 30.4 ppg over the last nine weeks. The upgrade to what was a good offense was based on finally having a running back in Ryan Grant who almost broke 1,000 yards in less than 200 carries. The Seahawks do not have a running game at all, and the Packers can get after the QB. But most importantly, the Pack are the 3rd best team in the NFL at stopping teams on third down, a position Seattle may find itself in often. The Seahawks thrive by putting pressure on the QB. They ate up an unprepared Todd Collins last week. But Favre has been sacked just 19 times all season, and that puts a lot of pressure against a team rated #19 in defending the pass. The Packers are a well balanced explosive team on both sides of the ball, and should have their way with the Seahawks here. Seattle is 1-10 ATS the past three seasons on the road coming off a double-digit win.Green Bay only suffered three ATS losses all season - best in the league. Congratulations to Seattle for winning big last weekend. But, they aren't home this week and they aren't facing Todd Collins. We like them the Packers in a blowout. We also like the UNDER as we expect Seattle's offense to struggle severely, with punter Ryan Plackemeier seeing a lot of action. Green Bay isn't necessarily though of as one of the NFL's stingiest teams but of all the remaining teams, they have a lower points per yard allowed than all but one team. Take Green Bay ATS and the UNDER.


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