2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 13, 2013


Seattle at Atlanta

Sunday 01/13 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Seattle +130 (moneyline) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: LOSS

Last week I argued that despite getting a lot of hype, the Seattle Seahawks remained a bit underrated. I will again argue that this week. This team is for real and is one of the strongest left standing, if not the strongest. Last week they walked into a buzzsaw as a pumped up Redskins team behind a pumped up crowd shot out to a very quick 14-0 lead. But, rather than folding, this young team showed a lot of patience and composure. Despite taking to the road with a roster of players who for the most part had never participated in a playoffs game, they dominated the game after the rough start. This team has certainly grown up fast, and that experience will help them as they head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons. The Falcons finished at 13-3 on the season, garnering the #1 seed in the NFC. But are they the superior team on the field today? Seattle outscored opponents by over 10 points per game this season while Atlanta outscored foes by 7.5. Seattle recorded five blowout wins by 20+ while Atlanta posted just two such blowouts. The Seahawks faced six playoff teams this year and went 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in those games. Atlanta faced only two playoff teams, albeit winning both. Digging a bit deeper into Atlanta's season, they played just four games all season against teams that were over .500. Despite the soft schedule, the majority of the Atlanta wins were decided by a single possession. Seattle played seven games this season against teams that were better than .500 at the time they played them, and they went 7-0 ATS, and 6-1 straight-up in those games. The one loss was to San Francisco, which they later redeemed in spades. It's clear who the better team is here, despite the seeding. But wait. Seattle is a bad road team you say? Nah. That was before Pete Carroll took over. Believe it or not, the Hawks are 9-5-1 ATS in their last 15 road games and they won more than half of those games outright. Yes, Atlanta will be hungry and they are a very good team at home. But, I think Seattle is better and they have won eight of their last eleven games outright vs. winning teams. Under Mike Smith, the Falcons have shown a lot of moxy in the early-season but questionable results when the going gets tough late. In late season play (after week 9), Atlanta is 6-14 straight-up vs. teams that average 350+ yards per game. My computer matchup on this game says Seattle wins the game. I agree. Take Seattle outright.


2012-13 Recent Results

Wins Losses Units
8 3 +4.30



Last 17.4 years

Wins Losses Units
1993 1718 +224.92

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