San Francisco at Cincinnati

The Giants average just 3.9 runs per game. They own a 29-37 road mark and a 19-30 record in day games this season. The Reds, terrible on the road, are a decent, winning team at home. The pitching matchup here is fairly even. Matt Cain owns the better ERA but San Francisco has lost three of the last four road games he has started. Arroyoa has been excellent in his last three starts (2.82 ERA). The Reds have now won eight of his last eleven starts. He is a perfect 11-0 in his last eleven post-All Star game home starts vs. bad teams (those outscored by 0.5+ runs per game).