2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 29, 2012
San Francisco at Arizona
Monday 10/29 08:30 PM Eastern
1 unit on San Francisco PICK () (risk 1 to return 1) RESULT: WIN
After a 4-0 start, Arizona turned back into a pumpkin having lost their last three. It shouldn't be that surprising as the offense is 27th in the NFL in rushing and passing and they have been outgained on the season. Even when they were sitting at 4-0, the Cardinals defense gave up more yards than their offense. The offensive line is a mess with John Skelton and Kevin Kolb having been sacked a ridiculous 35 times in seven games. The Cardinals lost two starters in left tackle Levi Brown and right tackle Jeremy Bridges prior to Week 1 with season-ending injuries. In their place, journeyman D’Anthony Batiste (six teams in 6+ years) has played left tackle and rookie fourth-round pick Bobby Massie has assumed the right-tackle spot. Arizona Right guard Adam Snyder (quadriceps) didn't practice much this week and is listed as questionable, so there's more bad news. The Cardinals are on pace to allow 80 sacks, which would be the second-most in NFL history. And, unfortunately for Arizona, their issues up front only appear to be getting worse as they have surrendered 29 sacks in their past four games. That’s more than seven teams allowed all year in 2011. With a defense like the Niners bring, that spells a lot of trouble for the Cards tonight. San Francisco is on an 18-7-1 ATS run and is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 Monday games. They are also 15-5-3 ATS in their last 23 games following a spread loss. This defense is dominant up front and will tear up this Arizona O-line. San Francisco has allowed 0, 3, 26 and 6 points the last three wins (the only defeat in the last four was 26-3 to the Giants). The 49ers have the power running game with Frank Gore (176 yards per game, second in the NFL) and will have success against the league’s 20th rush defense that is giving up 121 yards rushing per game. In fact, the Cardinals have yielded 331 rushing yards in their past two games! It's tough to see how Arizona will score much here after getting just 3, 16 and 14 points the last three games. Underdogs are a good play in the NFL if they are underrated or their opponent is dis-interested. This is a national TV game and an important divisional matchup so don’t expect San Francisco to look ahead. And, the Cardinals are anything but underrated. Take the Niners.