Portland at Dallas

The Dallas Mavericks always seem to fare well during the regular season, but struggle in the playoffs. They enter this one with a 25-8 mark, and once again they are on their way to well over 50 wins. The one thing they do is win, but they have done a poor job covering when posted as a favorite. The Mavs are just 27-43 ATS in their last 67 as a favorite, but are 52-21 straight-up in their last 72. That means the points come into play in Mavs games as a favorite over 30% of the time, more than double of what is expected. I'll play them on the moneyline.