2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 16, 2012
Pittsburgh at Dallas
Sunday 12/16 04:25 PM Eastern
2 units on Game Total OVER PICK (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: WIN
The Steelers own the best defense in the league - as rated by yards allowed (262.4). But, they drop all the way to 7th when we look at points allowed (20.3). And, Dallas' defense is ranked in the lower third of the league, allowing 24.2 per game. Pittsburgh's defense is very stout at home, allowing just 16 points per game. That figure climbs by more than a touchdown on the road (24 ppg allowed). Dallas' defense at home gives up 27.3 per game and lately this unit has been getting torched, giving up 33+ points in two of their last three games. The Steelers are coming off an upset loss to the Chargers and winning road teams that are off an upset loss have seen their games go OVER the spread 68% of the time the past six seasons (56-26 OVER). Over the past three seasons, the Cowboys are a perfect 7-0 OVER when facing a winning team at home. They are also 10-1 OVER during that span at home vs. good passing teams (teams completing over 60% of their passes). In the Mike Tomlin era in Pittsburgh, the Steelers are 21-11 OVER as a road favorite. Take the OVER here.