Pittsburgh at Chicago

While the Cubs have lost 10 of their last 12, Pittsburgh is the perfect team against which to get healthy. The Pirates are 20-51 on the road scoring 3.8 runs per game. They start Shawn Chacon who is 1-3 with an 8.55 ERA vs. the Cubs. He has a 1-3 road record with an 8.26 ERA. Sean Marshall has been a bit better for Chicago posting a 4.36 home ERA. He's a lefty and Pittsburgh is 10-34 vs. lefties this season. You say maybe Chacon will perform well against the lowly Cubs who can't score? Think again. Chacon is 4-24 on the road vs. teams scoring 4.3 or fewer runs per game. Home teams hitting .255 to .269 versus a poor starting pitcher (ERA 5.70+) are 37-6 (86%) during September over the last 5 seasons. Cubbies for a small price.