Philadelphia at Miami

The Miami Marlins were playing extremely well at home, and I think that the loss of ace pitcher Jose Fernandez is now starting to expose their starting pitching shortage. Miami was once 20-6 at home, but have begun to look more like the team from last season, and they have struggled to a 5-15 mark here over their last 20 games. Once a Marlin himself, A.J. Burnett has fared well against his former team in pitching to a career 2.97 ERA against them. Hector Alvarez has pitched very well for the Marlins, but in a series opener they are 0-4 in his last four starts, and Miami owns a 1-8 record in their last nine games when posted as a favorite from -110 to -150. Burnett has responded with extra rest, leading the Phillies to a 4-1 mark in his last five on an extra day of rest. Play on Philadelphia.