2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 02, 2012
Philadelphia at Dallas
Sunday 12/02 08:20 PM Eastern
3 units on Philadelphia PICK () (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: win
2 units on Game Total UNDER PICK (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: loss
At the start of the year, this Sunday Night game was supposed to be one with high impact, but it is looking more like a dud. I know this pick might incite a riot, but think of the stock market: buy on the bad news, sell on the good news. I'm not sure if I could cover all the bad news for the Eagles. They released their best pass rusher in Jason Babin who was immediately claimed by Jacksonville. Michael Vick will probably never take another snap in Philadelphia, their starting running back is injured, and Andy Reid has one foot out the door. The self-proclaimed Dream Team has become a nightmare for the second year in a row. Dallas isn't far from all that. This team is loaded with talent, but they can't get their act together. QB Tony Romo has 16 TD passes but 15 INTs. The Dallas running game doesn't exist. Dallas owns two double-digit wins in their last 18 games. But, believe it or not, they’ve suffered four double-digit losses. The Eagles have one option here, and it is a good one - just run Bryce Brown as much as they possibly can and shorten the game. Tony Romo will inevitably give one and take one for the Cowboys. The Cowboys play up to their competition which has become a near-automatic play. The underdog in Cowboys games since the start of the 2010 season is 29-12 ATS. This season, Dallas is 0-5 ATS at home. The Eagles have played seven straight UNDERs on the road. And, with Brown running often I look for a low-scoring game, as the Cowboys are 8-3 to the UNDER in their last 11 after a loss. Under Andy Reid, the Eagles are 60-45 UNDER after an OVER, 13-5 UNDER after consecutive losses and 12-4 UNDER on the road after allowing 30+ points last game. This is too many points for a flawed, under-achieving team, so back the Philadelphia and play on the UNDER.