2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 05, 2012
Philadelphia at New Orleans
Monday 11/05 08:30 PM Eastern
3 units on Philadelphia PICK () (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: LOSS
Both the Eagles and Saints have been major disappointments this season. The Saints more so as their defense has completely disintegrated. New Orleans ranks 30th at defending the pass, giving up over 300 yards per game. They are also 31st against the run, allowing a whopping 170 yards rushing per contest. The fewest amount of points they've allowed this season is 24. The Eagles come to town off a home loss to the Falcons, 30-17. But let's not forget that was the unbeaten Falcons, not the 2-5 Saints – a team in total disarray. Andy Reid is an excellent coach and when the Eagles get blown out like they did last week, they often bounce back. Philly is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a double-digit loss at home. This team has a ton of weapons on offense and despite underperforming expectations, they are respectable (15th in passing, 10th in the NFL in rushing). Michael Vick has proven that he is an average quarterback. But, this team can certainly move the ball against the Saints with LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. The offensive line got a boost last week with the return of King Dunlap and he will start again here. And the Philly defense is also respectable - in the middle of the pack in yards passing and rushing allowed. Not great, but a far cry from the train wreck called the Saints (allowing 475 yards per game). The drastic switch from former coordinator Gregg Williams' man-coverage scheme to Steve Spagnuolo's zone-coverage scheme has been a disaster, unable to cover, tackle or stop anyone. And the defensive line is struggling to get consistent pressure on quarterbacks because they're not blitzing as much as they had in the past. The Saints offense that couldn’t do much last week vs. the Broncos will be without running back and special teams ace Darren Sproles, ruled out after having hand surgery. Philadelphia has far better defensive talent, the better coach and an offense that should be able to bust out with big plays against this disorganized Saints defense. November road underdogs of up to 3.5 points are hitting 63% against-the-spread the last five years (41-24 ATS). In the Andy Reid era, the Eagles are 52-30 ATS in the underdog role and 45-28 ATS vs. losing teams. And, under Reid, the Eagles are 15-6 straight-up on the road following an upset loss. To be sure, the Eagles have all kinds of issues, but I think they will make this a game tonight and cover the spread.